新能源及有色金属日报：国内锌锭库存持续增加-20250905

Group 1: Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. Arbitrage: Neutral [6] Group 2: Core View - The domestic zinc market is weak with increasing social inventories and strong overseas premiums and falling inventories, making the supply - demand contradiction difficult to resolve in the short term. The domestic fundamentals are weak with high supply pressure, while the overseas market provides support. The current zinc price is judged to be neutral in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is $18.78/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is -270 yuan/ton to 21,970 yuan/ton, with a premium of -65 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is -260 yuan/ton to 21,970 yuan/ton, with a premium of -65 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is -270 yuan/ton to 21,960 yuan/ton, with a premium of -75 yuan/ton [2] - Futures: On 2025 - 09 - 04, the Shanghai zinc main contract opened at 22,240 yuan/ton, closed at 22,120 yuan/ton, -185 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a trading volume of 171,243 lots and a position of 118,873 lots. The highest price was 22,325 yuan/ton and the lowest was 22,000 yuan/ton [3] - Inventory: As of 2025 - 09 - 04, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory is 148,900 tons, a change of 2,600 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory is 54,750 tons, a change of -475 tons from the previous day [4] Market Analysis - The domestic spot market is weak, with increasing social inventories. The overseas market has strong premiums and falling inventories. The domestic fundamentals are weak with high supply pressure as the zinc ingot output in August increased by 28% year - on - year. The overseas market supports the price due to good macro - conditions and supply contraction. The short - term zinc price is judged to be neutral [5] Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Neutral. Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [6]