Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall view of various agricultural products is mainly "oscillating." For corn, the 11 - month contract is expected to oscillate, with short - term operations focusing on whether the 2200 - yuan mark can be effectively broken through. For soybeans and related products, they are also in an oscillating state, and short - term participation is recommended. For palm oil and other oils, prices are oscillating due to factors such as high inventory and low consumption. For eggs, the short - term recommendation is to wait and see, and in the long - term, pay attention to the change in production capacity. For pigs, the price is expected to be weak in the short - term, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Research Views - Corn: In the futures market, the 11 - month contract adjusted with position reduction this week, and the 9 - month contract rebounded due to the delayed listing of Liaoxi corn. In the spot market, before the new grain is listed, the supply is expected to increase, and the corn price shows a weak performance. Technically, the 11 - month contract encountered resistance at the 2200 - yuan mark and ended six consecutive positive days. Short - term operations should focus on whether the 2200 - yuan mark can be effectively broken through [2] - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans rebounded from a three - week low on Thursday. In the domestic market, both soybean meal and rapeseed meal continued to oscillate, with funds leaving the market and low trading volume. Oil mills have high inventories, and downstream feed enterprises have sufficient positions until the end of the month, with low purchasing willingness [2] - Oils: BMD palm oil oscillated narrowly on Thursday and rose on a weekly basis. An investigation shows that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil in August increased for the sixth consecutive month. In the domestic market, oil prices are oscillating and adjusting due to factors such as low consumption, high inventory, and large supply pressure [2] - Eggs: The egg futures price showed insufficient rebound strength after a low - level rebound at the beginning of the week. In the spot market, the terminal digestion improved near the weekend, and most egg prices in the sales areas rose. In the long - term, pay attention to the change in the number of old hens being culled and later replenishment [2][3] - Pigs: The main 2511 contract of live pig futures fell on Thursday. In the spot market, the average daily price of live pigs in China decreased. Affected by supply - side pressure, the pig price is weak, and the futures price may continue to be weak in the short - term [3] Market Information - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has deployed a fall inspection of the crop seed market nationwide, focusing on key crops such as wheat, rapeseed, and vegetables, and will send 5 working groups to key seed - using areas for supervision [4] - The bid - winning rate of CGC's rapeseed oil and sunflower oil procurement on September 4 was 100% [4] - According to MPOA data, the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from August 1 - 31 increased by 2.07%, with an estimated total output of 1.85 million tons [5] Variety Spreads - Contract Spreads: The report provides charts of 1 - 5 spreads for multiple varieties including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [7][8][12][16] - Contract Basis: The report provides charts of the basis for multiple varieties including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [15][18][19][22]
光大期货农产品日报-20250905
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-09-05 06:22