有色商品日报-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight copper prices fluctuated weakly. The US service industry data showed mixed signals, with strong orders but a contracting employment index and high prices. Weak employment data strengthened market expectations of a Fed rate cut. LME copper inventory decreased, Comex copper inventory increased, and domestic social copper inventory rose. Despite the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, the consumption peak was not well - reflected in inventory performance. Although there are expectations of fundamental improvement, the upward price movement may be limited by the US recession expectations and high copper prices [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. Alumina's复产 rhythm increased, and warehouse receipts began to accumulate, intensifying the oversupply expectation. However, due to factors such as the rainy season in Guinea and China's parade period, there were strong disturbances in the ore end. Downstream sectors started stocking up quickly before the "Golden September" peak season, and electrolytic aluminum demand may exceed expectations during the peak season. Aluminum industry profits are shifting from upstream to downstream. Under the dual - drive of the Fed rate cut in September and the domestic peak season, electrolytic aluminum has strong upward momentum, and there is room for the far - month spread of aluminum alloy to continue to repair [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel and Shanghai nickel prices fell. LME nickel inventory increased, and domestic SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased. Nickel ore prices were stable. Stainless steel inventory decreased slightly week - on - week, but supply increased, and cost support strengthened. In the new energy sector, ternary demand is strengthening, and the price of nickel sulfate may continue to rise. With the marginal improvement of nickel - iron and new energy, opportunities for buying at low prices can be considered [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: Macroeconomic data from the US influenced market expectations. Inventory changes were mixed, and the domestic consumption season may boost refined copper consumption, but there are constraints on price increases [1]. - Aluminum: Price trends were weak, with changes in inventory and supply - demand relationships. Ore - end disturbances and downstream stocking behavior affected the market, and there were expectations of price increases for electrolytic aluminum [1][2]. - Nickel: Price declines and inventory changes were observed. Different sectors related to nickel, such as stainless steel and new energy, showed different trends, and there were potential investment opportunities [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: Prices of various copper products decreased, and inventory changes were diverse. For example, LME copper inventory decreased by 200 tons, while COMEX copper inventory increased by 3016 tons [3]. - Lead: Some lead product prices decreased slightly, and inventory changes included a decrease in LME lead inventory by 3350 tons and an increase in上期所 lead inventory by 982 tons [3]. - Aluminum: Aluminum prices decreased, and inventory changes were noted, such as an increase in social alumina inventory by 2.1 tons [4]. - Nickel: Nickel - related product prices mostly decreased, and inventory changes included an increase in LME nickel inventory by 1080 tons and a decrease in domestic SHFE nickel warehouse receipts by 121 tons [4]. - Zinc: Zinc prices decreased, and inventory changes included an increase in上期所 zinc inventory by 793 tons and a decrease in LME zinc inventory by 475 tons [6]. - Tin: Tin prices decreased slightly, and inventory changes included an increase in上期所 tin inventory by 75 tons and an increase in LME tin inventory by 30 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][13][14]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][22]. - LME Inventory: Charts present the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - Social Inventory: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - Smelting Profit: Charts present the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [44][46][48]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team at Everbright Futures is led by Zhan Dapeng, a science master, who serves as the director of non - ferrous research, a senior precious metals researcher, and has multiple professional titles. The team also includes Wang Heng, a finance master from the University of Adelaide, focusing on aluminum and silicon research, and Zhu Xi, a science master from the University of Warwick, focusing on lithium and nickel research [51][52].