2025年8月宏观经济预测报告：PPI同比降幅有望收窄

Economic Indicators - The official manufacturing PMI for August is 49.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from July[4] - Industrial value-added growth for August is projected at approximately 5.2% year-on-year[9] - Retail sales growth is expected to be around 4% year-on-year for August[9] Production and Investment - The production index rose to 50.8%, while new orders improved slightly to 49.5%[4] - Fixed asset investment growth is estimated at 2% year-on-year for August, with manufacturing investment at 6.4%[5] - The top 100 real estate companies' sales in August amounted to approximately 207.04 billion yuan, down 1.9% month-on-month and 17.6% year-on-year[8] Price Trends - CPI for August is expected to remain at 0.0% year-on-year, while PPI is projected to decline by 2.9% year-on-year[9][20] - The purchasing price index increased significantly to 53.3%, indicating rising costs in the manufacturing sector[4] Consumption and Services - August saw a strong performance in service consumption, with cinema box office revenues around 5.987 billion yuan and over 150 million attendees[7] - Passenger transport volumes in civil aviation and railways reached record highs for the same period, driven by summer travel[7] Risks and Outlook - The overall economic outlook remains stable compared to July, but the manufacturing sector has been in contraction for five consecutive months, indicating weak market demand[8] - Continued adjustments in the real estate market are expected to impact overall domestic demand significantly[8]