JIANGSU TONGRUN(SZ:002150) Shanghai Aijian Securities·2025-09-05 06:38Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant growth in its energy storage business, driven by a solid foundation in the U.S. market and continuous breakthroughs in new markets [5] - The company specializes in solar storage products and metal products, with a strong market position in the U.S. and Korea [5] - The report highlights the company's competitive advantages, including brand strength, after-sales service capabilities, and backing from the Zhejiang Chint Group [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 2,518 million yuan in 2023 to 5,715 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.7% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 64 million yuan in 2023 to 494 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant recovery after a decline in 2023 [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.18 yuan in 2023 to 1.36 yuan in 2027 [4] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 30% over the forecast period, with a slight decline anticipated in 2027 [4] Industry and Company Situation - The company is positioned as a leader in the commercial inverter market in the U.S. and Korea, with a revenue share of 61.65% from solar storage products and 37.82% from metal products in the first half of 2025 [5] - The global demand for solar storage is expected to grow as carbon neutrality initiatives advance, providing a favorable environment for the company's growth [5] - The company has secured significant projects in Europe and Japan, indicating successful market penetration and product innovation [5][13] Key Assumptions - The inverter business is projected to grow at a steady rate of 20% annually from 2025 to 2027 [5] - The energy storage business is expected to experience rapid growth, with revenue growth rates of 80%, 70%, and 60% for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [5] Catalysts - Continued acquisition of energy storage orders and a potential shift in U.S. policies towards more favorable conditions for renewable energy [5]