降息节点将至，镍价重心或有上移

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the macro - level, during the reporting period, the expectation of interest rate cuts fluctuated. At the beginning of August, the labor market data pushed up the expectation of a 50bp rate cut in September. However, Fed officials later down - regulated this expectation. In terms of cost, nickel ore supply is becoming looser, with price changes in Indonesia and the Philippines. Fundamentally, nickel - iron imports shrank, prices rose, and steel mill production increases were poor. The sulfuric acid market maintained its heat, but the growth of supply was limited by raw materials. The pure - nickel market had average trading. Later, as the interest - rate cut approaches, the nickel price may rise, with steel mills expected to increase production and replenish raw materials in September [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In August, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated around the interest - rate cut expectation. At the beginning of the month, the poor non - farm payrolls data and potential rate cuts pushed up nickel prices. In the middle, hawkish remarks from Fed officials led to a decline in nickel prices. At the end, dovish remarks from Powell restored nickel prices. Overall, the price fluctuations were limited. The spot premium and discount remained stable, with Jinchuan nickel in the 2100 - 2600 range and imported nickel in the 300 - 600 range [8][9]. 2. Macro Analysis Overseas - Trump's tariff diplomacy was widespread in August, with trade frictions between the US and many countries. The US Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariff policies may affect future tariff disturbances. The US economic data was not optimistic, with inflation rising, the labor market weakening, and consumer spending conservative. There was a risk of stagflation. However, the upcoming rate cut in September may boost market sentiment [13][14][15]. Domestic - China's economic data was relatively stable in August. The manufacturing PMI improved slightly, and demand showed signs of recovery. Inventory circulation was smooth. However, inflation data was mixed, and consumer spending was not strong. The domestic economy relied heavily on fiscal support, with government bond financing playing a major role in social financing. There were still structural risks [16][17]. 3. Fundamental Analysis Nickel Ore Supply and Cost - Overseas nickel ore supply is expected to be looser, with a decline in the Indonesian benchmark price in late August. In July, China's nickel ore imports increased significantly, and domestic port inventories rose. However, high - grade nickel ore remained in short supply [18][20]. Smelting Profit and Supply - In August, China's refined nickel production increased year - on - year. In July, the smelting profit of integrated electrowinning nickel improved, but it may decline in August due to rising costs and falling nickel prices. In July, imports increased significantly, mainly from Russia, while exports also increased. Currently, export profits are in a loss state, which may affect future exports [21][23]. Nickel - Iron Cost and Demand - In July, the price of high - nickel pig iron first fell and then rose. In August, the production of nickel - iron in China and Indonesia increased. The profit of nickel - iron plants improved, but cost pressure remained. In September, the production of stainless steel is expected to increase, which may improve the profit of nickel - iron smelting. In July, the import of nickel - iron increased slightly, and the import and export of stainless steel showed different trends [25][26][27]. Sulfuric Nickel Market - In August, the price of sulfuric nickel showed a differentiated trend. The production of sulfuric nickel decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The production of ternary materials increased. The inventory of the industry chain decreased, indicating smooth resource circulation. The profit of high - ice - nickel to sulfuric nickel was positive, while other processes were in the red. In July, imports increased, and exports decreased slightly [30][31]. New Energy Vehicle Market - From January to July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly, but the growth rate slowed down in July. In July, the export of new energy vehicles increased significantly. In the future, the growth rate of consumption will slow down, but there is still room for growth, and subsidy policies will play a supporting role [34][35]. Inventory Situation - As of August 29, domestic refined nickel social inventory increased, while SHFE inventory decreased, and LME inventory increased. In the future, with the import window open and limited domestic supply growth, and considering the production increase of steel mills and the seasonal peak of the power end, inventory may decrease during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [37][38]. 4. Market Outlook - Supply: There is no maintenance plan at home and abroad, but the smelting profit is expected to decline, and domestic production is expected to be stable but weak. The import window is open, and overseas resources may flow in [40]. - Demand: Steel mills' production is expected to increase, and the largest demand terminal may replenish inventory. The growth rate of the power terminal has slowed down but still has growth potential [40]. - Cost: Nickel ore supply is becoming looser, and the cost center is expected to move down [40]. - Macro: As the interest - rate cut approaches, the macro - expectation is positive, but tariff disturbances should be watched out for. Overall, the nickel price may rise as the interest - rate cut nears, with the replenishment expectation of steel mills and positive macro - sentiment [40].