EIA周度报告点评-20250905

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - The EIA report for the week is relatively bearish due to the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories and the potential entry of refineries into the autumn maintenance period. The start of autumn maintenance at US refineries under the global crude oil production increase scenario is expected to widen the supply - demand gap. Although distillate demand is strong and inventories are low, which may support the diesel crack spread, the impact of refinery maintenance on crude oil demand will be more reflected in the crude oil market [4][6] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Inventory Data - As of August 29, US commercial crude oil total inventory was 420.707 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 2.415 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 2 million barrels. Cushing inventory increased by 1.59 million barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.509 million barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 3.795 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.1 million barrels, while distillate inventory increased by 1.681 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 0.6 million barrels. The total inventory of the US crude oil chain increased by 7.611 million barrels [2][3] Production and Consumption Data - US crude oil production decreased by 16 thousand barrels per day to 13.423 million barrels per day from August 22 to August 29. US crude oil net imports increased by 434 thousand barrels per day to 2.858 million barrels per day. Crude oil processing volume decreased by 11 thousand barrels per day to 16.869 million barrels per day. The four - week smoothed US crude oil terminal apparent demand increased by 132.5 thousand barrels per day, gasoline apparent demand increased by 19.25 thousand barrels per day, distillate apparent demand increased by 12 thousand barrels per day, and jet fuel apparent demand decreased by 0.25 thousand barrels per day [3] Refinery and Market Conditions - US refinery utilization rate declined for the second consecutive week, dropping 0.3% to 94.3%, moving further away from the previous high of nearly 97%. After the report was released, the market generally trended downwards. With the end of the driving peak season after the Labor Day weekend in early September, refinery operations are expected to follow a seasonal decline pattern, which is a bearish factor for crude oil demand [4][6] Product - Specific Analysis - Gasoline inventory decreased significantly before the Labor Day weekend, but the data at the end of the peak season has limited influence. Distillate demand, which rises seasonally with the start of the autumn harvest, remains stable. Although distillate inventory increased, it is still at a low level, and the distillate crack spread is expected to remain strong. However, due to the smaller consumption volume of distillates compared to gasoline, the overall terminal demand is expected to decline in the future [8]