中辉黑色观点-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel Products: Cautiously bearish [1] - Iron Ore: Cautiously bearish [1] - Coke: Cautiously bullish [1] - Coking Coal: Cautiously bullish [1] - Silicomanganese: Cautiously bearish [1] - Ferrosilicon: Cautiously bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel Products: Supply - demand contradictions persist, and the market is weak. For rebar, iron - water production has decreased significantly but is expected to rebound. Rebar production and apparent demand declined slightly, and inventory increased. For hot - rolled coils, production and apparent demand decreased, inventory increased, and the fundamentals are relatively stable. The overall steel supply - demand shows a loosening trend, and there are limited short - term positive factors. The weak fundamentals may lead to a mid - term decline [1][4][5]. - Iron Ore: Iron - water production decreased more than expected, some steel mills postponed resuming production. Port inventory is accumulating, and short - term restocking demand from steel mills is weak. Overseas ore shipments increased while arrivals decreased, with neutral - weak fundamentals. Ore prices are oscillating weakly [1][8]. - Coke: The first round of price cuts has started, and the game between steel and coke enterprises is obvious. Coking profits are good, and production is expected to gradually recover after the military parade. Iron - water production decreased but is expected to rebound. The weak terminal demand for steel may lead to a mid - term decline, but there may be a technical rebound after continuous short - term declines [1][12]. - Coking Coal: Affected by the military parade, production decreased significantly but is expected to gradually recover. Mongolian coal customs clearance is at a high level, and imports are running at a high level. The main contract is still at a premium to the warehouse - receipt cost, with a mid - term downward adjustment risk, but there may be a rebound after continuous short - term declines [1][16]. - Silicomanganese: Weekly production continued to increase with a slower growth rate, demand increased slightly, and enterprise inventory decreased by 0.7 million tons to 14.9 million tons. Steel mills' restocking in September is about to start. The October manganese ore quotes from Comilog and Union Mining are the same as the previous round, providing some cost support. The short - term upward and downward space is limited, and the market is weak [1][19][20]. - Ferrosilicon: Weekly production decreased, demand increased slightly, and enterprise inventory increased by 830 tons to 6.29 million tons. The short - term upward and downward space is limited, and the market is weak [1][19][20]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel Products - Price Information: Rebar futures prices (01 contract: 3117, up 11; 05 contract: 3167, up 12; 10 contract: 3035, up 1) and hot - rolled coil futures prices (01 contract: 3313, up 14; 05 contract: 3325, up 15; 10 contract: 3329, up 19) are provided. Spot prices and various price differences such as basis, futures spreads, and spot spreads are also presented [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Currently in the stage of verifying demand, the weakness of the real estate and infrastructure sectors may drag down the mid - term performance of rebar. For hot - rolled coils, the overall steel supply - demand loosening trend and limited short - term positive factors may lead to a mid - term decline [5]. Iron Ore - Price Information: Iron ore futures prices (01 contract: 792, up 15; 05 contract: 768, up 13; 09 contract: 831, up 18), spot prices of different iron ore powders, and various price differences such as basis, spreads, and ratios are provided. Also, sea - freight and spot index information are included [6]. - Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bearish [9]. Coke - Price and Data Information: Futures prices of different coke contracts, basis, spot prices, and weekly data on production, inventory, and profit are provided. For example, the 1 - month contract price is 1581.5, down 12.5; the full - sample independent coking enterprise capacity utilization rate is 73.4%, down 1.1% [11]. - Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bullish [13]. Coking Coal - Price and Data Information: Futures prices of different coking coal contracts, basis, spot prices, and weekly data on production, inventory, and related indicators are provided. For example, the 1 - month contract price is 1094.5, down 11.5; the sample coal - washing plant start - up rate is 61.5%, down 0.8% [15]. - Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bullish [17]. Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - Price and Data Information: Futures prices, spot prices, basis, spreads, and weekly data on production, inventory, and enterprise start - up rates are provided for both silicomanganese and ferrosilicon. For example, the silicomanganese 01 contract price is 5730, down 2; the silicon - manganese enterprise start - up rate is 46.45%, down 0.55% [18]. - Operation Suggestion: For both silicomanganese and ferrosilicon, the short - term upward and downward space is limited, and the market is weak [20].