Minsheng Securities·2025-09-05 07:22Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal industry, recommending specific companies based on their performance and market conditions [7][8]. Core Insights - The coal market experienced a decline in prices during the first half of 2025, with an average price of 675.7 CNY/ton for thermal coal, a year-on-year decrease of 22.8% [3][14]. - A rebound in coal prices is anticipated in the second half of 2025 due to increased demand and supply constraints, potentially returning to levels seen in Q3 2024 [4][29]. - The report highlights a significant reduction in production from both domestic and international sources, with a year-on-year decrease in coal production from major exporting countries [18][24]. Market Review - In H1 2025, thermal coal prices continued to decline, with Q2 prices hitting a low of 631.6 CNY/ton, down 25.6% year-on-year [3][14]. - The average price of coking coal also saw a significant drop, with the main coking coal price at 1377.67 CNY/ton, down 38.79% year-on-year [3][14]. Industry Outlook - The report forecasts a price recovery driven by supply reductions and seasonal demand increases, with expectations for prices to return to Q3 2024 levels [4][29]. - Supply-side constraints are expected to persist, with an estimated annual reduction of 230 million tons due to stricter production regulations [24][25]. - Non-electric demand, particularly from the coal chemical sector, is projected to grow, providing additional support for coal prices [29][30]. Fund Holdings - In Q2 2025, most listed companies in the coal sector saw an increase in fund holdings compared to Q1, with notable increases for companies like Huabei Mining and Xinjie Energy [5][34]. Half-Year Report Summary - The coal sector's total revenue in H1 2025 decreased by 18.8% year-on-year, with the thermal coal sub-sector experiencing a 16.6% decline [36][37]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 32% year-on-year, with the coking coal sub-sector facing the steepest decline of 60.1% [38].