集运日报：现货运价持续下跌，近月合约持续下探，盘面处于筑底过程，近期波动较大，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损。-20250905

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Spot freight rates are continuously declining, near - month contracts are falling, and the market is in the bottom - building process with large recent fluctuations. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [2]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - On September 1, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1773.60 points, down 10.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1013.90 points, down 2.6% from the previous period. On August 29, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1098.17 points, up 6.02% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period [3]. - On August 29, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [3]. - On September 4, the main contract 2510 closed at 1300.7, down 1.77%, with a trading volume of 25,800 lots and an open interest of 50,000 lots, a decrease of 1983 lots from the previous day [5]. Economic Indicators - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August was 50.5 (forecast 49.5, previous value 49.8), the preliminary value of the service PMI was 50.7 (forecast 50.8, previous value 51), and the preliminary value of the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than 50.9 in July, the highest since May 2024 and higher than the expected value of 50.7. The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in August was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [3]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3 (forecast 49.5, previous value 49.8), the preliminary value of the service PMI was 55.4 (forecast 54.2, previous value 55.7), and the preliminary value of the Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [4]. Trade and Geopolitical Situation - Sino - US tariffs are still extended, and there is no substantial progress in the negotiation. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly decreased [5]. - On September 4, the Houthi armed forces launched a military operation against Israel, targeting Ben - Gurion International Airport near Tel Aviv with a "Zulfiqar" ballistic missile, which hit the target. On September 3, the Israeli Defense Forces and the Shin Bet announced that they had killed a leader of the "Jihadist Brigade" in the Gaza Strip [5]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to lightly test long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back before judging the subsequent direction [5]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5].