烧碱非铝下游开工持续提升

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. Core View - The PVC market continues to be weak after the weakening of macro - sentiment, with supply pressure and weak demand, and the chlorine - alkali profit still has room for compression. The caustic soda spot price is stable with a slight increase, and the non - aluminum downstream start - up rate is increasing. The chlorine - alkali profit is at a medium level compared with the same period [3][4]. Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures and Spot Prices: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4883 yuan/ton (+5), the East China basis is - 213 yuan/ton (-5), and the South China basis is - 133 yuan/ton (-25). The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4670 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4750 yuan/ton (-20) [1]. - Upstream Production Profits: The blue charcoal price is 630 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2730 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 64 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit is - 399 yuan/ton (-176), the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit is - 628 yuan/ton (-36), and the PVC export profit is 13.7 US dollars/ton (-4.3) [1]. - Inventory and Start - up: The PVC in - factory inventory is 31.2 tons (+0.6), the PVC social inventory is 52.2 tons (+1.4), the PVC calcium carbide - based start - up rate is 77.65% (+2.41%), the PVC ethylene - based start - up rate is 72.59% (+3.93%), and the overall PVC start - up rate is 76.18% (+2.85%) [1]. - Downstream Orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 69.6 tons (-2.9) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures and Spot Prices: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2593 yuan/ton (-19), the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 126 yuan/ton (+19). The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 870 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1360 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream Production Profits: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1728 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive chlorine - alkali profit in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 744.5 yuan/ton (-40.0), the comprehensive chlorine - alkali profit in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 642.53 yuan/ton (-10.00), and the comprehensive chlorine - alkali profit in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1418.45 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and Start - up: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 38.78 tons (+0.83), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.14 tons (+0.00), and the caustic soda start - up rate is 84.20% (+1.80%) [2]. - Downstream Start - up: The alumina start - up rate is 85.58% (-0.20%), the printing and dyeing start - up rate in East China is 65.63% (+0.90%), and the viscose staple fiber start - up rate is 87.10% (+1.08%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market continues to be weak after the weakening of macro - sentiment. The supply side has increased production due to the resumption of many maintenance enterprises and new production capacity. The demand side has low downstream product start - up and weak export. The social inventory is accumulating, and the chlorine - alkali profit has room for compression [3]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda spot price is stable with a slight increase. The supply - side start - up rate is slightly rising. The demand - side inventory in Shandong has accumulated due to transportation restrictions, but the subsequent shipment pressure is small. The non - aluminum downstream start - up rate is increasing, and the chlorine - alkali profit is at a medium level compared with the same period [4]. Strategy PVC - Single - sided: Cautiously bearish. - Inter - delivery Spread: Go short on the V01 - 05 spread when it is high. - Inter - commodity Spread: None [5]. Caustic Soda - Single - sided: Cautiously bullish. - Inter - delivery Spread: Go long on the SH10 - 01 spread when it is low. - Inter - commodity Spread: None [6].