集运日报：现货运价持续下跌，近月合约持续下探，盘面处于筑底过程，近期波动较大，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Spot freight rates are continuously falling, near - month contracts are declining, and the market is in the bottom - building process with large recent fluctuations. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [2]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Content Freight Rate Index - On September 1, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1773.60 points, down 10.9% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1013.90 points, down 2.6% from the previous period [3]. - On August 29, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1098.17 points, up 6.02% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period [3]. - On August 29, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period [3]. - On August 29, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August was 50.5, the service PMI was 50.7, and the composite PMI was 51.1, with the composite PMI rising for three consecutive months and reaching the highest since May 2024 [3]. - China's manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - The preliminary values of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI and Markit manufacturing PMI in August were both 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high; the service PMI was 55.4 [4]. Market Strategy - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to take a light - position trial long at around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase positions at around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Given the volatile international situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines or make light - position attempts [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. Contract Information - On September 4, the main contract 2510 closed at 1300.7, down 1.77%, with a trading volume of 25,800 lots and an open interest of 50,000 lots, a decrease of 1983 lots from the previous day [5]. - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the company's margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5]. Geopolitical Events - On September 4, the Houthi armed forces launched a military operation against Israel, targeting Ben - Gurion International Airport near Tel Aviv with a "Zulfiqar" ballistic missile, which hit the target [5]. - On September 3, the Israeli Defense Forces and the Shin Bet announced that they had killed a leader of the "Jihad Brigades" in the Gaza Strip [5].