TongQingLou Catering (SH:605108) Guolian Minsheng Securities·2025-09-05 07:55Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.33 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.7%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 11.1% to 70 million yuan [4][12] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 640 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 20 million yuan, up 34.1% [4][12] - The company is experiencing short-term revenue fluctuations due to industry volatility, but it has begun to recover since late July 2025 [13] - The company is accelerating its national expansion, having opened 3 new Furong hotels and 2 Tongqinglou outlets in the first half of 2025, with a total of 11 Furong hotels operational as of August 28, 2025 [14] Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company expects revenues of 2.83 billion yuan, 3.43 billion yuan, and 4.12 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.2%, 20.9%, and 20.1% [15] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 190 million yuan, 316 million yuan, and 438 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with growth rates of 91.3%, 65.0%, and 38.5% [15] - The company’s EBITDA is expected to reach 1.245 billion yuan in 2025, with a significant increase from previous years [16] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its market share and brand influence through the rapid opening of new locations, particularly in key cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou [14] - The food business has shown strong performance, with sales of traditional products exceeding 420 million yuan during the Dragon Boat Festival [14]