Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: Short - term UR01 - 05 positive spread can trade on fluctuations; after the export window period, UR01 - 05 can conduct reverse spread at high levels [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - India's NFL urea import tender received a large amount of supplies at a lower price, and the follow - up award quantity is worthy of attention [2] - The domestic urea spot market has seen improved transactions after price cuts, but the sustainability is weak; agricultural and industrial demands co - exist, and the medium - and long - term supply - demand is still loose [2] - Urea production is high, with a decline this week due to more maintenance; coal - based urea profit is acceptable with general cost support [2] - September is the export window period, with continuous exports and increasing port inventories; follow - up attention should be paid to port operations and export dynamics [2] Summary by Catalog 1. Urea Basis Structure - On September 4, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1714 yuan/ton (+0); Henan small - particle ex - factory price was 1710 yuan/ton (0); Shandong small - particle price was 1700 yuan/ton (-10); Jiangsu small - particle price was 1710 yuan/ton (-10); small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+0); Shandong basis was - 14 yuan/ton (-10); Henan basis was - 4 yuan/ton (-10); Jiangsu basis was - 4 yuan/ton (-10) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of September 4, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.11% (+0.08%); this week, there were many maintenance enterprises, and the production decreased; with new capacity release, the medium - and long - term urea supply - demand is still loose [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Urea production profit was 170 yuan/ton (-10); coal - based urea profit is acceptable, and the cost - side support is general [1][2] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - India's NFL tender received a large amount of supplies, with the lowest price on the east coast at 462.45 US dollars/ton and on the west coast at 464.70 US dollars/ton, nearly 70 US dollars/ton lower than the previous price; urea export profit was 1186 yuan/ton (+4); September is the export window period, and exports are continuing [2][1] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of September 4, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 33.08% (-6.14%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 58.98% (+0.48%); urea enterprise advance order days were 6.41 days (+0.35) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of September 4, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 109.50 million tons (+0.92), and the port sample inventory was 62.09 million tons (+2.09); the export collection rhythm has accelerated, and port inventories are continuously accumulating [1][2]
尿素日报：尿素港口小幅累库，印标投标量增价减-20250905
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-09-05 08:14