新能源及有色金属日报：下游备货积极性较差，铅价难有靓丽表现-20250905

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The lead market currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. On the supply side, TC prices are continuously declining, and smelter maintenance is increasing. On the demand side, dealer inventory depletion is slow, purchasing意愿 is low, and some enterprises' finished - product inventories are accumulating. With the upcoming implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles and Middle - East tariff policies in September, the impact on consumption is uncertain. Therefore, the lead price is expected to remain in a trading range between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On September 4, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 43.09 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 35.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,075 yuan/ton, 10,100 yuan/ton, and 10,425 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On September 4, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,865 yuan/ton, closed at 16,860 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 25,910 lots, a decrease of 4,432 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 50,042 lots, a decrease of 596 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 16,835 yuan/ton and 16,890 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,890 yuan/ton and closed at 16,870 yuan/ton, up 0.03% from the afternoon close [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The lead market has a weak supply - demand pattern. Supply is affected by falling TC prices and increased smelter maintenance. Demand is weak as dealers have slow inventory depletion and low purchasing意愿, and some enterprises have accumulated finished - product inventories [3] Inventory Data - On September 4, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 66,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to the same period last week. As of September 4, the LME lead inventory was 251,200 tons, a decrease of 3,350 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [3]