燃料油日报：油价回落带动盘面下跌，市场多空因素交织-20250905

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil investment rating: Sideways [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil investment rating: Sideways [2] - Cross-variety investment rating: None [2] - Cross-period investment rating: None [2] - Futures-spot investment rating: None [2] - Options investment rating: None [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical and macroeconomic situation remains unclear, especially the limited progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks, leading to many uncertainties in the short term for the crude oil market. The news of OPEC's plan to further increase production caused oil prices to decline again, driving down the FU and LU futures prices [1]. - High-sulfur fuel oil is in a stage of market adjustment and rebalancing, with mixed bullish and bearish factors. Supply has tightened due to sanctions on Russia and Iran and drone attacks on Russian refineries by Ukraine, while Middle Eastern fuel oil exports are increasing, and domestic refinery procurement demand remains weak [1]. - The low-sulfur fuel oil market currently faces limited pressure, with domestic production at a low level, the overseas market in a mild Back structure, and the spot premium turning negative. In the short term, the market structure is relatively stable but lacks strong drivers. In the medium term, low-sulfur fuel oil still faces the contradiction of demand share substitution and excess capacity, so while there is some support below the valuation, there is also significant upward resistance [1]. Group 3: Market Analysis Summary - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 2.4% at 2,760 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 3.21% at 3,412 yuan/ton [1]. - Brent crude oil prices fell below $67 per barrel, driving down the FU and LU futures prices [1]. - High-sulfur fuel oil market drivers are limited, with supply tightening and weak demand [1]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil market structure is stable in the short term but faces challenges in the medium term [1]. Group 4: Strategy Summary - High-sulfur fuel oil strategy: Sideways [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil strategy: Sideways [2] - Cross-variety strategy: None [2] - Cross-period strategy: None [2] - Futures-spot strategy: None [2] - Options strategy: None [2]