贵金属日评：美国8月部分就业数据表现偏弱支撑贵金属价格-20250905

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The weak performance of some US employment data in August supports the price of precious metals. With the Fed's possible policy adjustment due to weak employment supply and demand, continuous pressure from Trump, geopolitical risks, and central banks' gold - buying, precious metals prices are likely to rise. It is recommended that investors mainly set up long positions when prices fall, but also pay attention to the US August non - farm payrolls and CPI data on September 6th and 11th [1] Data Summary Shanghai Gold and Silver - Gold: Futures closing price is 781.70 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 73,492.00 and an inventory of 43,254.00 kilograms. Spot closing price is 809.97 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 27,326.00 and a position of 22,398.00. The spread between near - month and far - month is - 1.58, and the basis is - 4.91 [1] - Silver: Futures closing price is 9,773.00 yuan/ten - gram, with a trading volume of 463,397.00 and an inventory of 1,227,039.00 ten - grams. Spot closing price is 9,780.00 yuan/ten - gram, with a trading volume of 580,972.00 and a position of - 17,326.00. The spread between near - month and far - month is 0.00, and the basis is 37.00 [1] International Gold and Silver - Gold: COMEX futures closing price is 3,443.20 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 229,950.00 and an inventory of 38,578,730.06 troy ounces. London spot price is 3,546.30 dollars/ounce. SPDR ETF holding is - 2.29, and iShare ETF holding is 3.31. The spread between near - month and far - month is - 46.70, and the basis is 20.00 [1] - Silver: COMEX futures closing price is 38.70 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 66,072.00 and an inventory of 516,067,724.23 troy ounces. London spot price is 2.55 dollars/ounce. US iShare ETF holding is 15,230.57, and Canadian PSLV ETF holding is 6,129.61. The spread between near - month and far - month is - 0.52, and the basis is - 0.27 [1] Other Commodities and Financial Indicators - Commodities: INE crude oil is 493.20 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude is 67.39 dollars/barrel, NYMEX crude is 63.34 dollars/barrel, Shanghai copper is 360.00 yuan/ton, LME copper is - 77.50 dollars/ton, Shanghai rebar is 27.00 yuan/ton, and Dalian iron ore is 787.50 yuan/ton [1] - Interest Rates: SHIBOR is 1.33 and 1.65, US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield is 4.1700, TIPS yield is - 0.03, and the 10 - year Treasury break - even inflation is 2.3800 [1] - Exchange Rates: Dollar index is 98.2748, dollar - to - RMB central parity is 7.1052, and euro - to - RMB central parity is 8.2855 [1] - Stock Indices: Shanghai Composite Index is 3,765.8759, S&P 500 is 6,502.0800, UK FTSE 100 is 9,216.8700, French CAC40 is 7,698.9200, German DAX is 23,770.3300, Nikkei 225 is 42,580.2700, and South Korean Composite Index is 21.47 [1] Important Information - Miran said the Fed's independence is "crucial" to the economy, and Trump has the right to express his views on interest rates. Miran also said he would act independently if nominated [1] - The US ISM services PMI expansion speed reached the fastest in half a year, with weak employment and high prices. US ADP employment growth in August slowed significantly to 54,000. The number of initial jobless claims last week was 237,000, reaching the highest since June. US corporate recruitment willingness in August dropped to the lowest level since 2009, and layoff numbers soared [1] Trading Strategy - Due to factors such as possible Fed policy adjustment, geopolitical risks, and central banks' gold - buying, precious metals prices are likely to rise. It is recommended to set up long positions when prices fall. For London gold, focus on the support around 3,200 - 3,300 and the resistance around 3,600 - 3,700; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support around 760 - 770 and the resistance around 840 - 850. For London silver, focus on the support around 34 - 37 and the resistance around 41 - 43; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support around 9,000 - 9,400 and the resistance around 10,000 - 10,500 [1]