Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-09-05 08:34Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The volatility in the US Treasury market has intensified, and attention should be paid to the US non - farm payroll data for August [2]. - The Fed is expected to restart the easing cycle, and Powell's dovish stance paves the way for a September rate cut in the US, making the path of overseas inflation rise smoother [2]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is advisable to allocate more industrial products on dips [4]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In August, there were initial signs of rising overseas inflation. Global economic data in July remained resilient. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year in US dollars, higher than expected. Domestic monthly economic data still faced pressure, with investment data under significant pressure [2]. - The A - share market on September 4 was in a volatile adjustment throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index leading the decline and the STAR 50 Index falling nearly 6%. Stocks fell more than they rose, with nearly 3000 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets closing down [2][5]. - In the US, the ISM manufacturing index in August contracted for the sixth consecutive month, new orders improved, and the price index declined again. The US trade deficit in July widened to a four - month high [2]. Commodity Analysis - The domestic supply - side is most sensitive to the black and new energy metal sectors. Overseas inflation expectations can focus on precious metals and agricultural products [3]. - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated. The energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of some varieties is worthy of attention [3]. - Agricultural products are driven by short - term tariffs and inflation expectations, but they still need signals from the fundamentals and attention to the disturbances brought by Sino - US negotiations [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate more industrial products on dips [4]. Important News - On September 4, the A - share market had more falling stocks than rising stocks. The trading volume exceeded 2.58 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.25%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.83%, and the ChiNext Index fell 4.25%. Financial stocks such as securities and banks were active [5]. - The Trump administration asked the Supreme Court to quickly decide whether he has the right to impose extensive tariffs. The Supreme Court may make a ruling in the summer of 2026 [5]. - The Fed's Beige Book showed that consumer spending was flat or declined, and prices rose in all districts [2]. - The US ADP employment in August increased by 54,000, lower than the market expectation of 65,000 [5]. - Trump's nominee for the Fed governor, Miran, said in the hearing that the Fed's main responsibility is to prevent economic depression and inflation, and he plans to maintain the independence of the FOMC [5].