农产品日报：糖浆政策调整发酵，郑糖期价维持弱势-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][5][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the global supply - demand pattern has shifted from loose to tight, with potential for improved US cotton supply - demand. Domestic cotton has a tight supply situation at the end of this season, but new - year production increase expectations limit the upside of cotton prices [2] - For sugar, the adjustment of syrup policy may cause short - term negative sentiment, but the low domestic sugar inventory restricts the continuous decline space [5] - For pulp, the current pulp market fundamentals have no significant improvement, and the short - term pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 14,010 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (+0.14%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,352 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,451 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton [1] - Overseas: As of August 29, India's new - year cotton planting area was 10.88 million hectares, a 2.3% decrease from last year. As of August 31, Pakistan's new - year ginned cotton equivalent was about 207,000 tons, a 50.5% increase from two weeks ago and an 8.6% increase from last year [1] Market Analysis - International: India extended the tariff - free period, and the USDA adjusted global cotton production and inventory, making the supply - demand pattern tight. The US cotton supply - demand is expected to improve, but the slow export sales limit the upside [2] - Domestic: The domestic cotton de - stocking is fast, and the commercial inventory is at a low level. The late - issued and limited - quantity sliding - scale duty quota did not solve the cotton shortage. With the approaching peak season, the domestic cotton price has strong support, but the new - year production increase and future hedging pressure limit the upside [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. In the short term, there is strong support for Zhengzhou cotton prices before the large - scale listing of new cotton. In the medium term, the peak listing period may face pressure, and there may be a decline if the peak season is disappointing [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,533 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (-0.52%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,880 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,845 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [3] - Overseas: Ukraine's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to drop from 1.8 million tons to 1.5 million tons [3] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Brazil's sugar production forecast has been lowered, and Pakistan's sugar purchase supports prices. However, with the peak crushing season in Brazil and the expected increase in the Northern Hemisphere, the upside is limited [5] - Zhengzhou sugar: The high import profit and large - scale imports in July, along with expected processed sugar supply in August - September, put pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to the possible increase in syrup imports in August [5] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. The syrup policy adjustment may cause short - term negative sentiment, but the low domestic sugar inventory restricts the decline space [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5,052 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,715 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - Market: The import wood pulp spot market was mostly stable, with some price fluctuations among different pulp types [6] Market Analysis - Supply: There will be more pulp production capacity put into operation in the second half of the year in China, and the import volume of wood pulp is expected to decline. However, the slow de - stocking at ports and high inventory levels keep the supply pressure high, with hardwood pulp supply being looser [7] - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US is weak, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure is increasing. In China, the demand is weak during the off - season, and the paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious. The planned new paper production capacity has not effectively increased the output due to insufficient terminal demand [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. The short - term pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level due to the lack of positive drivers in the industry chain [8]