Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual ratings for different black commodities: steel (narrow - range consolidation), iron ore (fluctuation), coking coal (fluctuation with a weakening trend), coke (fluctuation with a weakening trend), manganese silicon (fluctuation), and ferrosilicon (fluctuation) [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For steel, the production of rebar decreased slightly, inventory accumulated significantly, and apparent demand declined. With prices hitting the cost - line, cost support strengthened, and short - term rebar futures are expected to move in a narrow range [1] - For iron ore, supply increased while demand decreased due to more blast furnace overhauls and a decline in molten iron production. With a mixed situation of long and short factors, short - term ore prices are expected to fluctuate [1] - For coking coal, production increased as some mines resumed operations, while demand was weak as downstream buyers were cautious. Short - term coking coal futures are expected to fluctuate with a weakening trend [1] - For coke, although the coking association resisted price cuts, the weakening of coking coal prices led to a marginal increase in supply. With high steel billet inventory and weak steel prices, short - term coke futures are expected to fluctuate with a weakening trend [1] - For manganese silicon, production continued to increase, steel procurement prices decreased, and costs decreased slightly. With no strong driving force in the fundamentals, short - term manganese silicon futures are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] - For ferrosilicon, production enterprises are in a loss - making state, steel procurement prices decreased, and there is no strong driving force in the short - term fundamentals. Short - term ferrosilicon is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to steel procurement and electricity prices [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - Steel: The rebar futures contract 2601 closed at 3117 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.35%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions. Spot prices were stable with some increases, and trading volume recovered. This week, rebar production decreased by 1.88 tons week - on - week to 218.68 tons, social inventory increased by 14.89 tons to 468.66 tons, factory inventory increased by 1.72 tons to 171.34 tons, and apparent demand decreased by 2.14 tons to 202.07 tons [1] - Iron Ore: The futures contract i2601 closed at 791.5 yuan/ton, up 14.5 yuan/ton (1.9%) from the previous trading day, with an increase in trading volume and positions. Port spot prices were strong. Global iron ore shipments increased, while molten iron production decreased by 11.29 tons to 228.84 tons. The profitability of steel mills declined, and port inventory increased while steel mill inventory decreased [1] - Coking Coal: The futures contract 2601 closed at 1094.5 yuan/ton, down 11.5 yuan/ton (1.04%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions. Spot prices in some areas decreased. Production increased as some mines resumed operations, and downstream demand was weak [1] - Coke: The futures contract 2601 closed at 1581.5 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan/ton (0.78%) from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. Port spot prices decreased. Although the coking association resisted price cuts, supply increased marginally due to the weakening of coking coal prices, and demand was cautious [1] - Manganese Silicon: On Thursday, the futures price fluctuated weakly, closing at 5730 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous day, with an increase in positions. Market prices in most regions decreased by 50 yuan/ton. Production continued to increase, steel procurement prices decreased significantly, and costs decreased slightly [1] - Ferrosilicon: On Thursday, the futures price fluctuated weakly, closing at 5496 yuan/ton, down 0.72% from the previous day, with an increase in positions. Market prices in some regions decreased. Production enterprises are in a loss - making state, and steel procurement prices decreased [1] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads: The spreads of different contracts for various commodities changed. For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 82.0, down 10.0; the 10 - 1 spread of hot - rolled coil was 16.0, up 5.0 [4] - Basis: The basis of different contracts for various commodities also changed. For example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar was 195.0, down 1.0; the basis of the 10 - contract of hot - rolled coil was 21.0, down 9.0 [4] - Spot Prices: Spot prices of different commodities in different regions changed. For example, the price of rebar in Shanghai was 3230.0, unchanged; the price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3350.0, up 10.0 [4] - Profits and Spreads: The profits and spreads of different commodities also changed. For example, the rebar futures profit was - 22.7, down 6.7; the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 196.0, up 3.0 [4] 3. Chart Analysis - 3.1 Main Contract Prices: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [6][7][10][15] - 3.2 Main Contract Basis: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts of various black commodities from 2022 to 2026, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][21][23] - 3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: There are charts showing the spreads of different inter - period contracts of various black commodities from 2019 to 2026, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][30][32][33][34][37][38] - 3.4 Inter - commodity Contract Spreads: There are charts showing the spreads of different inter - commodity contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, the ratio of coke to iron ore, the ratio of coking coal to coke, and the spread between manganese silicon and ferrosilicon [43][45][47] - 3.5 Rebar Profits: There are charts showing the profits of rebar main contracts from 2020 to 2025, including futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [48][52] Group 4: Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of the research institute and the director of black research at Everbright Futures. He has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, with multiple industry honors [54] - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures, with rich experience and many industry honors [54] - Liu Xi is a black researcher at Everbright Futures, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [54] - Zhang Chunjie is a black researcher at Everbright Futures, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [55] Group 5: Company Information - The company is located at 6th Floor, Building 1, Lujiazui Century Financial Plaza, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, fax is 021 - 80212200, customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [56]
黑色商品日报-20250905
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-09-05 08:35