Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-05 08:48Report Overview - Report Title: "Silicon Ferrosilicon Market Weekly Report: Cost Increase, Loss Expansion, Short - term Price Support" [2] - Date: September 5, 2025 - Researcher: Xu Yuhua 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The cost of silicon ferrosilicon has increased and losses have expanded, providing short - term support for prices. The macro - environment has information disturbances from anti - involution policies, causing the futures market to fluctuate between long and short positions. The strengthening of coal prices supports the rebound of alloys. The silicon ferrosilicon main contract is expected to oscillate between 5540 - 5750 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - Macro Aspect: China's electricity consumption accounts for 30% of terminal energy consumption, expected to rise to over 40% by 2035. Baosteel will focus on long products and thick plates. The personal mortgage loan balance of six major state - owned banks has decreased by 107.8 billion yuan compared to the beginning of the year [7]. - Overseas Aspect: The US has postponed trade threats against China and is considering sanctions on Russia. Trump signed a US - Japan trade executive order, imposing up to 15% tariffs on most Japanese products. Some Asian and Middle - Eastern investment institutions are avoiding US assets [7]. - Supply - Demand Aspect: After the previous profit improvement, production has quickly recovered. Most manufacturers hedged earlier, and inventory is at a neutral level. The cost of blue charcoal and electricity has risen, while the overall demand for steel remains weak. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 315 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 390 yuan/ton [7]. - Technical Aspect: The weekly K - line of the silicon ferrosilicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend on the weekly chart [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: Treat the silicon ferrosilicon main contract as oscillating between 5540 - 5750 [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: As of September 5, the silicon ferrosilicon futures contract open interest was 451,600 lots, an increase of 39,388 lots. The 5 - 1 contract month - spread was 110, a decrease of 34 points. The number of warehouse receipts was 18,309, a decrease of 1,524. The Ningxia silicon ferrosilicon price was 5,360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [9][11][15]. - Spot Market: As of September 5, the silicon ferrosilicon basis was - 358 yuan/ton, a decrease of 82 points [23]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Production and Demand: This week (September 4), the national silicon ferrosilicon production capacity utilization rate was 36.34%, a decrease of 0.20%. The daily average production was 16,430 tons, an increase of 1.70%. The weekly demand for silicon ferrosilicon in five major steel types was 20,076.1 tons, a decrease of 2.42%. The national silicon ferrosilicon weekly supply was 115,000 tons [27]. - Inventory: As of September 4, the national silicon ferrosilicon inventory was 66,560 tons, an increase of 5.80%. Inner Mongolia's inventory increased by 4,000 tons, while Ningxia's decreased by 200 tons [30]. - Upstream: As of September 1, the electricity price in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia for silicon ferrosilicon remained unchanged. As of September 4, the average price of blue charcoal in Ningxia remained unchanged. As of September 5, the spot production cost in Ningxia increased by 200 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 350 yuan/ton. In Inner Mongolia, the cost remained unchanged, and the profit decreased by 130 yuan/ton [36][42]. - Downstream: This week, the daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills was 228,840 tons, a decrease of 112,900 tons. From January to July 2025, the total silicon ferrosilicon export volume was 236,000 tons, a decrease of 4.91% compared to the same period last year. The August silicon ferrosilicon tender price was 5,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to July [44][48].