油脂油料周报：连粕低位震荡，油脂震荡收涨-20250905

Report Title - "A Weekly Report on Oils and Oilseeds by Guoxin Futures" [2] Report Date - September 5, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the protein meal market, CBOT soybeans oscillated downward this week due to concerns about export demand, while domestic soybean meal fluctuated at the bottom. In the oils market, international oils fluctuated within a range, and domestic oils oscillated higher. Looking ahead, the protein meal market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, and the oils market is likely to continue its strong - side oscillation [6][78][144]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Protein Meal Market Analysis 3.1.1 Market Trends - CBOT soybeans oscillated downward due to concerns about export demand and the lack of Chinese buyers. Domestic soybean meal fluctuated around 3050. Brazilian premium increases provided cost - driven support, but future supply uncertainties intensified market volatility. Spot market trading was light [6]. 3.1.2 Export Data - As of August 28, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 472,914 tons, up 20% from the previous week but down 6% from the same period last year. The 2024/25 total export inspection volume reached 49,763,188 tons, up 11.3% year - on - year, and 97.5% of the revised annual export target [12]. 3.1.3 Crop Conditions - As of August 31, the U.S. soybean pod - setting rate was 94%, the leaf - falling rate was 11%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 65% [23][24]. 3.1.4 Global Supply Information - In Brazil, the 2025/26 soybean planting area in Paraná state is expected to be about 5.8 million hectares, up 1% year - on - year, and the yield may increase by 4%. StoneX maintains Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production forecast at a record 178.2 million tons [45]. 3.1.5 Inventory and Profitability - As of the end of this week, the domestic port's imported soybean inventory was about 6.8546 million tons. The domestic spot crushing profit continued to decline, while the futures crushing profit slightly rebounded [54]. 3.1.6 Production and Consumption - As of the 35th week (August 30), the domestic soybean oil mill's average startup rate was 67.26%, and the domestic soybean meal inventory was 1.063 million tons. The estimated apparent consumption of soybean meal in the 35th week was 1.9941 million tons [61][65]. 3.2 Oils Market Analysis 3.2.1 Market Trends - International oils oscillated within a range, with U.S. soybean oil oscillating at the bottom and Malaysian palm oil oscillating at a high level. Domestic oils oscillated higher, with palm oil leading the rise on Friday [78]. 3.2.2 International Information - From January to July 2025, Indonesia exported 13.64 million tons of crude and refined palm oil, up 10.95% year - on - year. Indian palm oil imports in August increased by 16% [80]. 3.2.3 Weather Conditions - Typhoons and monsoons brought heavy rainfall to Thailand and neighboring countries, benefiting rice and oil palms in the region [89]. 3.2.4 Price and Spread - The overall trend of oils this week was palm oil > soybean oil > rapeseed oil, and the soybean - palm oil spread slightly declined [117]. 3.2.5 Inventory - As of the 35th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.7017 million tons, up 4.22% week - on - week [100]. 3.3 Market Outlook 3.3.1 Seasonal Analysis - Seasonal analysis charts of U.S. soybeans, soybean meal, and various oils and meals are provided, but specific conclusions are not given [134][135][137]. 3.3.2 Next - Week Outlook - Technical Aspect: For soybean meal, short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators are intertwined. For rapeseed meal, short - term indicators are intertwined, medium - term indicators are bullish, and long - term indicators are intertwined. Similar situations apply to different oils [143]. - Fundamental Aspect: In the protein meal market, the USDA report is due next week, and there is a possibility of a decrease in U.S. soybean yields. The domestic soybean meal market is expected to remain volatile. In the oils market, the MPOB report is coming, and the domestic oils market is expected to continue its strong - side oscillation [144].