固收专题：“反内卷”对债市的中长期影响

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - "Anti-involution" has evolved from a social issue to a long - term policy, with its influence expected to be further established in the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference. It will reshape the price environment and industrial landscape. - The policy will lead to a reduction in over - capacity and price self - discipline, which may narrow the decline of PPI and stabilize inflation. - In the economic aspect, it may result in a co - existence of price increase and growth slowdown in the short term. - For the bond market, the initial impact may be less than 30BP, and it may push up the 10 - year Treasury bond yield by 12.8 - 17.06BP [1][3][44]. Summary According to the Directory 1 Policy: "Anti - involution" of "Generalization" and "Long - term" 1.1 "Anti - involution" Policy Context: From Regulating Industry Competition to Emphasizing Capacity Governance - Since the Politburo meeting in July 2024, the policy has evolved from focusing on unfair competition in emerging industries to capacity regulation and price stability in traditional industries, with a significant expansion in scope and a more prominent macro - regulatory nature [10]. 1.2 "Anti - involution" Policy Origin: Persistent Concerns about Low Inflation - The policy is a response to weak domestic market demand. In 2025, the CPI and PPI data show weak demand, and the policy aims to stabilize prices [15]. 1.3 "Anti - involution" Policy Expectation: A Long - cycle Policy Goal - It is expected to be further established as a strategic policy in the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of this year. It will affect product and service prices in over - capacity industries and may influence the macro - price level through the upstream and mid - stream of the industrial chain [20]. 2 Industry: Current Industry Profits and "Involution" Degree 2.1 High "Involution": Mid - and Downstream Manufacturing - Using industrial enterprise profit changes and long - term gross margin trends, 20 industries have seen profit declines this year, with coal mining and others having large drops. Over the past three years, industries like coal and oil and gas extraction have had significant gross margin declines [23][24]. 2.2 Low "Involution": High - concentration Industries - 20 industries have had profit increases this year, with 13 exceeding the industry average. Industries such as ferrous metal smelting and non - ferrous metal mining have high profit growth, and others like other mining and alcohol, tea, and beverage industries have seen continuous gross margin improvements [26]. 3 Impact: What Impact Does "Anti - involution" Have? 3.1 Impact on Prices: No Worries This Year, Long - term Increase - The policy affects the supply side through production cuts and price self - discipline, which will be transmitted to PPI. Future PPI decline may narrow, and inflation may stabilize [3][28]. 3.2 Impact on Growth: Affecting Production and Demand - The policy may directly affect enterprise production capacity and industrial added value. The constructed production index shows that price increase and growth slowdown may co - exist in the short term, and more coordinated macro - policies may be needed [32][37]. 3.3 Impact on the Bond Market: Lifting the Investment Return Rate Center - Referring to the 2015 supply - side reform, the initial impact on the bond market may be less than 30BP. The policy may push up the ROIC, which corresponds to an upward space of 12.8 - 17.06BP for the 10 - year Treasury bond yield [38][40].