聚烯烃日报：需求弱现实，聚烯烃期现走低-20250905

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint - The polyolefin market continued to decline, with weak demand. The market returned to fundamental trading. The overall operating rate increased as previously shut - down plants resumed operations and there were few planned shutdowns. New production capacity was continuously released, leading to a significant increase in supply. The upstream inventory was transferred downstream, with a slight decrease in producers' inventory and an increase in intermediate - link inventory. The cost - side support was weak, while the demand side was slowly rising as it entered the seasonal demand transition period [3]. Summary by Directory I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Figures related to this section include the plastic futures main contract trend, LL East China - main contract basis, polypropylene futures main contract trend, and PP East China - main contract basis [10][13] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - For PE, the operating rate was 80.5% (+1.9%), and the oil - based production profit was 218.2 yuan/ton (+111.1). For PP, the operating rate was 79.9% (-0.3%), the oil - based production profit was - 361.8 yuan/ton (+111.1), and the PDH - based production profit was - 253.7 yuan/ton (-102.2) [1][21][27] III. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - This section involves price differences such as HD injection - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, etc. [32][39][40] IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit was - 246.2 yuan/ton (+34.0), PP import profit was - 586.2 yuan/ton (+14.0), and PP export profit was 35.9 US dollars/ton (+3.6) [1] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 20.2% (+2.7%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 50.5% (+0.9%), PP downstream woven bag operating rate was 42.7% (+0.4%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 61.4% (+1.0) [2] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - The report does not provide specific inventory data analysis, but mentions that upstream inventory was transferred downstream, with a slight decrease in producers' inventory and an increase in intermediate - link inventory [3] Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: Reverse spread of 01 - 05 - Cross - variety: Long L - P [4]