Guotai Junan Securities·2025-09-05 09:12Core Insights - The report discusses the potential impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions on the U.S. stock market, particularly in September, which historically shows weak performance for the S&P 500 index [3][4][15] - The S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index have shown limited gains of 0.97% and 0.89% respectively since the Jackson Hole meeting, indicating a phase of profit-taking adjustments in the market [3][4] - The optimism surrounding technology sectors, particularly artificial intelligence and semiconductors, has been a key driver for the U.S. stock market, with Alphabet's stock rising significantly due to a favorable court ruling [5][10][11] Market Performance - Historically, the S&P 500 index has experienced an average decline of 4.0% in September, with the performance in recent years showing a consistent trend of weakness [14][15] - The report highlights that the ISM manufacturing PMI for August was 48.7, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, which has contributed to market concerns [5][11] Company-Specific Developments - Alphabet's stock surged over 9% following a court ruling that allowed the company to maintain its Chrome browser and Android operating system without structural separation, alleviating investor concerns [6][8] - The favorable ruling is seen as a "low-cost penalty" for Alphabet, which has boosted market confidence and resulted in a significant increase in its market capitalization [8][10] Employment Data Impact - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with recent ADP employment data showing a significant drop in job growth, which could affect market expectations [11][13] - The report notes a "see-saw" relationship between ADP and non-farm employment data, suggesting that if this trend continues, it may lead to unexpected impacts on market sentiment regarding interest rate cuts [11][13]