Dongxing Securities·2025-09-05 09:22Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Postal Savings Bank of China (601658.SH) [9] Core Views - The bank's revenue and net profit growth turned positive in the first half of 2025, with revenue at CNY 179.45 billion and net profit at CNY 49.23 billion, reflecting year-on-year increases of 1.5% and 0.8% respectively [1] - Non-interest income significantly contributed to revenue growth, with a 25.2% year-on-year increase in other non-interest income, while net interest income saw a decline of 2.7% [2] - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.92% as of June 2025, showing a slight increase from the previous quarter [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, the bank's revenue grew by 1.5% year-on-year, with a sequential improvement of 1.6 percentage points from 1Q25 [2] - The bank's net interest income decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe compared to previous periods [2] - Other non-interest income surged by 25.2%, driven by a recovery in the bond market and increased trading gains, with investment income rising by 64.6% [2] Loan Growth - As of June 2025, the bank's total assets and loans increased by 10.8% and 10.1% year-on-year, respectively, outpacing state-owned banks [3] - Corporate loans grew by 14.8%, while retail loans saw a modest increase of 1.9% [3] Interest Margin - The net interest margin (NIM) for 1H25 was 1.7%, down 17 basis points from 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 21 basis points [4] - The bank's deposit and interest-bearing liabilities interest rates decreased by 21 basis points compared to 2024, but the decline was less than the average of the five major banks [4] Asset Quality - The NPL ratio stood at 0.92% as of June 2025, with a slight increase of 1 basis point from the previous quarter [5] - The bank's provision coverage ratio was 260.4%, indicating a strong buffer against potential loan losses [5] Future Outlook - The report forecasts a net profit growth of 1.5%, 2.8%, and 3.8% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding book value per share (BVPS) estimates of CNY 7.59, CNY 8.12, and CNY 8.20 [9][10]