Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Rebar: The main contract price of rebar oscillated upwards with a daily increase of 1.06%, and both trading volume and open interest expanded. Currently, both supply and demand of rebar have weakened, the fundamentals have not improved, inventory has been increasing, and steel prices are under pressure. With the relatively favorable peak - season expectation and rising costs, steel prices will continue to oscillate to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - Hot - rolled coil: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated higher with a daily increase of 1.03%, and trading volume and open interest expanded. At present, production has decreased due to production restrictions but can recover quickly. In contrast, demand resilience is weakening, the supply - demand imbalance in the hot - rolled coil industry continues to accumulate, inventory growth has widened, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively favorable factors are peak - season expectation and cost situation, and the short - term trend will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - Iron ore: The main contract price of iron ore oscillated at a high level with a daily increase of 0.77%, and trading volume and open interest shrank. Currently, iron ore demand is declining while supply is rising, the fundamentals of iron ore are likely to weaken, and high - valued ore prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively favorable factors are peak - season expectation and the intervention of arbitrage funds. The short - term ore price will maintain a high - level oscillation, and beware of the intensification of industrial contradictions [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - The central bank will conduct a 100 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on September 5 with a term of 3 months to maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system [6]. - The expected tariff increase in the US led to a significant expansion of the US trade deficit in July. The trade deficit in July expanded to $78.3 billion, significantly higher than that in June. The import in July was $358.8 billion, a month - on - month increase of 5.9%; the export was $280.5 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. The total trade deficit of goods and services increased by 32.5% month - on - month [7]. - In late August 2025, the average daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises was 1.947 million tons, a decrease of 8.0% compared to the previous period; the average daily output of pig iron was 1.827 million tons, a decrease of 5.1%; the average daily output of steel products was 2.138 million tons, an increase of 4.4% [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - Rebar: The spot prices in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3,210 yuan, and the national average price was 3,283 yuan [9]. - Hot - rolled coil: The spot prices in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3,380 yuan and 3,320 yuan respectively, and the national average price was 3,431 yuan [9]. - Iron ore: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 782 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 792 yuan [9]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume | Open Interest | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rebar | 3,143 | 1.06 | 1,385,167 | 1,737,894 | | Hot - rolled coil | 3,340 | 1.03 | 534,944 | 1,300,035 | | Iron ore | 789.5 | 0.77 | 289,453 | 501,397 | [11] 3.4 Relevant Charts - Steel inventory: The report provides charts of weekly changes in rebar inventory, hot - rolled coil inventory, and total inventory (steel mill + social inventory) [14][16][22]. - Iron ore inventory: Charts of national 45 - port iron ore inventory, 247 - steel - mill iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory are included [20][24][30]. - Steel mill production situation: Charts of 247 - steel - mill blast furnace开工率 and capacity utilization rate, 87 - independent electric furnace开工率, and 75 - building - material independent electric - arc furnace steel mill profit and loss situation are provided [25][29][31]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Rebar: The supply - demand pattern has not changed much. Production of construction steel mills has weakened, and rebar weekly output decreased by 18,800 tons. Demand is weak, and both weekly apparent demand and high - frequency transactions are at low levels. Steel prices will continue to oscillate to find the bottom [32]. - Hot - rolled coil: Both supply and demand have weakened. During the parade, production was restricted, and weekly output decreased by 105,000 tons. Demand continues to be weak, and the demand resilience is weakening. Steel prices will continue to be under pressure and oscillate in the short term [33]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern has changed. Due to production restrictions, terminal consumption of iron ore has decreased significantly, and supply has increased. Ore prices will maintain a high - level oscillation, and beware of the intensification of industrial contradictions [34].
钢材、铁矿石日报：反内卷再度发酵，钢矿震荡走高-20250905
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-09-05 09:44