盘面回暖,有色上行
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-09-05 09:44
- Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - 沪铜: The main contract price of Shanghai copper increased with positions and stood above the 80,000 mark again. Due to the domestic market recovery and the arrival of the peak season, the upward momentum is strong [4]. - 沪铝: The main contract price of Shanghai aluminum increased without positions and reached the 20,700 level. With the market recovery and the peak season approaching, the industry support is expected to strengthen, and the price is expected to fluctuate [5]. - 沪镍: The nickel price fluctuated strongly, and the position increased slightly. After the market digested the Indonesian demonstration disturbance, with the macro - recovery and industry - positive digestion, the bulls' willingness to close positions is strong, and the price is expected to fluctuate [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Copper: After the September 3rd parade, the logistics supply in the North China electrolytic copper market returned to normal. As the copper price rose, downstream consumption was significantly suppressed, and the spot premium continued to decline. In mid - to - late September, smelters will have concentrated maintenance periods, and the market is expected to show a pattern of weak supply and demand [8]. - Nickel: The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,500 - 122,900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 1,900 - 2,200 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 200 - 200 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - Copper: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [9][11][12]. - Aluminum: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, and aluminum bar inventory [21][23][25]. - Nickel: Charts include nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [33][36][37].