Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Coke: As of the week ending September 5, the combined daily coke output of independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 1.1223 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 16,200 tons per day. The latest ton - coke profit improved by 9 yuan/ton to 64 yuan/ton. The average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2.2884 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 112,900 tons per day. The total coke inventory increased slightly to 8.9528 million tons, mainly accumulating in steel mills. The "anti - involution" policy's second fermentation drove market sentiment, and strong cost expectations supported the upward rebound of coke futures, but the sustainability of the upward trend depends on subsequent specific policies [3][32]. - Coking Coal: This week, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines was 693,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 60,000 tons; coke daily output was 1.1223 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 16,200 tons; pig iron daily output was 2.2884 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 112,900 tons. The supply - demand data met the market's bearish expectations. However, the risk of the "anti - involution" policy's second fermentation was being released, and strong expectations pushed coking coal futures to strengthen again. The subsequent price trend of coking coal depends on whether the coal industry association and enterprises will introduce new policies or self - regulatory measures to support the "anti - involution" work [4][32]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry News - The central bank will conduct a 100 - billion - yuan repurchase operation on September 5 for a term of 3 months to maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system [5]. - On September 5, Mongolia's ER company held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price of Meng 3 clean coal was 800 yuan/ton, and all 12,800 tons were sold at a price of 835 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton higher than the previous day. The supply location is the supervision area of Ganqimaodu Port in China, and the supply will be completed within 90 days after payment, with the final supply date being December 4, 2025 [6]. 2. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1,570 | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 7.10% | - 7.10% | | Coke (Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1,420 | - 4.05% | - 4.05% | - 12.35% | - 12.35% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian coal) | 1,180 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 16.01% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian - produced) | 1,530 | - 3.16% | - 3.16% | 2.68% | - 9.47% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced) | 1,550 | - 4.91% | - 4.91% | 1.31% | - 10.40% | [7] 3. Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1,646.5 | 4.71 | 1,662.5 | 1,574.5 | 34,829 | 11,280 | 47,026 | 199 | | Coking Coal | - | 1,158.5 | 6.33 | 1,172.0 | 1,090.5 | 1,732,556 | 547,153 | 721,541 | - 12,086 | [10] 4. Related Charts - Coke Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory from 2019 - 2025 [11][13][16]. - Coking Coal Inventory: Charts display the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel mills' coking coal, and all - sample independent coking plants' coking coal from 2019 - 2025 [19][20][23]. - Other Charts: Include domestic steel mill production (blast furnace start - up rate and steel mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire rod and screw steel procurement volume, coal washery production (clean coal inventory and start - up rate), and coking plant start - up (ton - coke profit and coke oven capacity utilization rate) [25][27][31]. 5. Market Outlook - Coke: The fundamentals of coke have not improved significantly. The "anti - involution" policy's second fermentation drove market sentiment, and strong cost expectations supported the upward rebound of coke futures, but the sustainability of the upward trend depends on subsequent specific policies [32]. - Coking Coal: The supply - demand data met the market's bearish expectations, but the "anti - involution" policy's second fermentation risk was being released, and strong expectations pushed coking coal futures to strengthen again. The subsequent price trend of coking coal depends on new policies or self - regulatory measures [32].
煤焦日报：供应利好再现，煤焦强势反弹-20250905
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-09-05 09:38