CCSC(SH:601375) Zhongyuan Securities·2025-09-05 09:55Macro Environment - The economic data for August indicates a stable overall economic volume in China, with strong growth in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors, particularly in aviation, shipbuilding, electrical machinery, and electronic information industries [6][12] - Consumer demand showed a slight decline, with total retail sales and commodity retail sales experiencing a slowdown in year-on-year growth, but recovery is expected as national subsidy funds are gradually disbursed in the second half of the year [6][12] - Fixed asset investment growth remains stable overall, although real estate development investment continues to be a drag [6][12] - Inflationary pressures are easing, with core CPI rising by 0.8% year-on-year, marking an expansion in growth for three consecutive months [6][12] Policy Environment - In August, policies continued to focus on technological innovation and the real economy, with the central bank and seven departments issuing guidelines to support financing for high-end manufacturing and technology innovation enterprises [6][12] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission modified regulations to enhance the evaluation standards for securities companies, promoting the introduction of medium to long-term funds into the equity market, which is expected to boost liquidity in the A-share market [6][12] Market Performance - In August, the bond market saw a significant rise in risk appetite due to policies aimed at promoting fair competition and maintaining normal industry order, leading to expectations of price recovery [6][50] - The equity market remained strong, with significant gains in technology and small-cap stocks, particularly the ChiNext 50 (up 69.87%), North Star 50 (up 50.78%), and Sci-Tech 50 (up 45.14%) [6][56] - The technology (TMT) sector rose by 55.39%, advanced manufacturing by 33.73%, and healthcare by 29.64%, driven by high midstream manufacturing sector performance and supportive policies [6][56] Monthly Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests that due to the continuous increase in risk appetite, the market is showing a preference for small-cap stocks and growth over value [6][76] - With the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, risk appetite is expected to further increase, driving up TMT and cyclical sectors [6][76] - If the TMT sector enters a correction, it is recommended to gradually increase allocations to financials, transportation, and consumer sectors [6][76] Industry Performance - In August, the top-performing industries included telecommunications (up 34.41%), electronics (up 24.79%), and comprehensive sectors (up 21.9%), while the lowest performers were construction decoration (up 1.85%) and oil and petrochemicals (up 1.37%) [6][65] - The net financing amounts were highest in the electronics sector (784.24 billion), followed by computing (248.04 billion) and telecommunications (235.51 billion) [6][71]