小非农爆冷不改降息预期，铜价或正蓄势今夜非农

1. Market Data Variation Analysis - SHFE copper main contract price dropped 0.57% to 79,840 yuan/ton, LME copper price slightly fell to 9,974 dollars/ton, and the market continued weak adjustment [1]. - Spot premium and discount generally weakened, with the discount of flat - copper narrowing by 30 yuan and that of wet - copper widening to - 20 yuan/ton, indicating low downstream receiving willingness [1]. - LME (0 - 3) discount slightly narrowed to - 66.89 dollars/ton but remained deeply discounted, showing overseas spot pressure persisted [1]. - LME copper positions increased by 3,511 lots to 281,336 lots, with greater divergence among long - position funds during price correction [2]. - SHFE copper warrant inventory decreased slightly, with 699 tons reduced in Guangdong, but overall market trading was restricted by high copper prices, with downstream purchases mainly for rigid demand [2]. 2. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes Supply Side - Overseas mine disturbances intensified, with production issues at Teck Resources' QB copper mine in Chile and a short - term output decline at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde mine due to ball - mill failures, increasing concerns about copper concentrate supply tightness [3]. - LME copper inventory increased continuously and COMEX inventory rose to 284,400 short tons, indicating overseas hidden inventory pressure was still being released [3]. Demand Side - Domestic downstream demand remained weak, with the discount of Shandong spot premium and discount widening to 150 yuan/ton, and orders of North China fine - copper rod enterprises not improving significantly after resumption, and the operating rate and orders of the enameled wire industry both declining [4]. - High copper prices suppressed the restocking willingness of small and medium - sized processing enterprises, and the seasonal off - season characteristics in power and construction fields continued, resulting in light market trading [4]. Inventory Side - SHFE inventory in China decreased slightly but at a slower pace; with the marginal increase in LME inventory and overseas delivery pressure, the total global visible inventory remained high, and weak demand could not drive substantial inventory reduction [5]. 3. Price Trend Judgment - Short - term copper prices may maintain high - level oscillations, constrained by weak demand and overseas inventory pressure on the upside and supported by supply disturbances and costs on the downside [6]. - Supply - side mine disturbances may trigger squeeze - out expectations, but the "Golden September and Silver October" demand has not materialized, and with unchanged interest - rate cut expectations after the unexpected ADP data, copper prices will fluctuate within the channel without new drivers [6].