原油：原油震荡运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a strategy of shorting on rallies for crude oil [1]. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil is at the end of the seasonal travel peak season. EIA data shows unexpected crude oil inventory build - up and significant gasoline inventory draw - down, with an overall increase in oil product inventories. The US refinery utilization rate has slightly declined. OPEC + is accelerating production increases, and there are signs of further production hikes. The supply - demand balance of crude oil is expected to weaken, so shorting on rallies is advised [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The strategy is to short on rallies. OPEC + 8 voluntary - cut countries decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, and may consider further production increases. EIA and IEA have both raised the forecast of global oil surplus, increasing pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. The end of the consumption peak season and potential sanctions on Russia also affect the market. Attention should be paid to OPEC + meetings and potential sanctions on Russian oil [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2510 fell 0.03% to 482.0 yuan/ton, with a low of 478.5 yuan/ton and a high of 482.0 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 2399 to 25,244 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects global oil inventory increases to exceed 2 million barrels per day in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, an upward revision of 0.8 million barrels per day from last month. EIA has also lowered the average Brent crude oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026. OPEC maintains the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate at 1.29 million barrels per day and raises the 2026 rate to 1.38 million barrels per day. IEA raises the 2025 and 2026 global oil supply growth rates and lowers the 2025 demand growth rate [3]. - On September 4, EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories for the week ending August 29 increased by 2.415 million barrels, against an expected decrease of 2.031 million barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 3.795 million barrels, and refined oil inventories increased by 1.681 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 1.59 million barrels [3]. - OPEC's June crude oil production was revised down by 46,000 barrels per day to 27.543 million barrels per day, and its July 2025 production increased by 262,000 barrels per day to 27.543 million barrels per day, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. US crude oil production in the week of August 29 decreased by 16,000 barrels per day to 13.423 million barrels per day [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 21.282 million barrels per day, up 3.89% year - on - year. However, weekly gasoline and diesel demand decreased, leading to a 4.45% week - on - week decrease in the weekly supply of US crude oil products [4][6].