Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of September 5, the fundamentals of asphalt showed a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand. The weekly production and operating rate of asphalt decreased due to refinery turnarounds or overhauls, while the shipments increased slightly, leading to significant declines in factory and social inventories. Recently, the influencing factors of crude oil were mixed, with geopolitical disturbances providing intermittent support to oil prices and expected changes in supply being bearish for oil prices. In the short term, under the combined influence of fundamentals and cost, asphalt had no clear direction and was in a wide - range oscillation. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of asphalt was not prominent, and crude oil fluctuations would dominate the market trend. It was recommended to track the results of OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical developments [7]. - Looking ahead, asphalt was expected to continue its wide - range oscillation under the dual influence of fundamentals and cost. Attention should be paid to the range of 3350 - 3500 yuan/ton for the BU2511 contract. In terms of supply and demand, although demand showed signs of recovery after recent rainfall ended and both social and factory inventories decreased, considering the approaching end of the peak demand season, the demand side might not perform beyond expectations, providing weak support to the market. For crude oil, the recent influencing factors were mixed, with frequent geopolitical disturbances and the news of OPEC+ potential production increase suppressing market sentiment, leaving oil prices without a clear direction. It was advisable to focus on the results of the OPEC+ production meeting and track geopolitical developments [67]. Summary by Directory Report Summary - Market news indicated that OPEC+ would consider another production increase at the Sunday production meeting. The Fed's "Beige Book" showed price increases in all regions, with most reporting "moderate or slight" inflation. US President Trump hinted at implementing second and third - stage oil sanctions against Russia [6]. - As of September 5, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 28.1%, a 1.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous statistical period. The weekly asphalt production was 50.9 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons from the previous week. The factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 64.2 tons, a decrease of 3.2 tons from the previous week, and the social inventory was 122.5 tons, a decrease of 4.5 tons from the previous week. It was recommended to focus on the BU2511 contract in the range of 3350 - 3500 yuan/ton [7]. Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors for asphalt included inventory decline and raw - material - end disturbances, while bearish factors were demand falling short of expectations and insufficient upward driving force at the cost end [10]. Macroeconomic Analysis - OPEC+ might start a new round of production increase. Two sources said that OPEC+ would consider further increasing oil production at the Sunday meeting to regain market share. Another production increase would mean OPEC+ starting to lift the second - layer production cuts of about 1.65 million barrels per day, 1.6% of global demand, more than a year ahead of schedule. OPEC+ current production policies mainly consisted of three parts, and if OPEC+ increased production at the September meeting, it would strengthen the expectation of market oversupply, and oil prices might test previous lows; if the status quo was maintained, oil prices might recover, but the rebound space was expected to be limited [13]. - Geopolitical uncertainties caused periodic disturbances to oil prices. The Russia - Ukraine tension escalated, European countries' plan to send troops to Ukraine was exposed, and the Israeli military's actions escalated on two fronts [14]. Data Analysis - Supply: As of September 5, the weekly asphalt production was 50.9 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons from the previous week, mainly due to some refineries switching production or undergoing maintenance. As of September 3, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 28.1%, a 1.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous statistical period, with more significant declines in the southwest and south China regions. The decrease in the refinery operating rate was mainly due to the decline in refinery profits [15][23]. - Demand: As of September 5, the weekly asphalt shipments were 41.2 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons from the previous week, indicating a phased improvement in demand after the end of rainfall. However, the weekly capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt was 15.89%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points from the previous week, with more significant declines in the north and central China regions [26][29]. - Import: In July, the domestic asphalt imports were 38.05 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 tons and a year - on - year increase of 16.53%. From January to July, the cumulative imports were 210.55 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.5% [37]. - Export: In July, the domestic asphalt exports were 5.57 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62 tons. From January to July, the cumulative exports were 33.49 tons, a year - on - year increase of 46.45% [40]. - Inventory: As of September 5, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 64.2 tons, a decrease of 3.2 tons from the previous week, and the social inventory was 122.5 tons, a decrease of 4.5 tons from the previous week [7]. - Spread: As of September 5, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing dilution was - 614 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.9 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of September 3, the asphalt - to - crude - oil ratio was 55.67, and as of September 4, the asphalt basis was 258 yuan/ton [65].
沥青周度报告-20250905
Zhong Hang Qi Huo·2025-09-05 10:25