原油周度报告-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, influenced by geopolitical and fundamental factors, crude oil prices rose first and then fell, continuing the previous wide - range oscillation pattern. Geopolitical disturbances and potential supply tightening concerns provided intermittent upward momentum, while OPEC+ considering another production increase added supply pressure and suppressed prices. In the short term, the fundamental contradictions of crude oil are not prominent. The expectation of supply surplus in the fourth quarter weighs on prices, but it has not yet been reflected in inventories due to the current peak demand season in the Northern Hemisphere. Geopolitical factors cause only short - term disturbances and cannot form a trend. It is expected that the wide - range oscillation will continue. Attention should be paid to the results of the OPEC+ production meeting and the situation between the US and Venezuela. The recommended trading strategy is to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $60 - $65 per barrel [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - Market News: OPEC+ will consider another production increase at the Sunday meeting; the Fed's "Beige Book" shows price increases in all regions with most reporting "moderate or slight" inflation; US President Trump hinted at second and third - stage oil sanctions against Russia [7]. - Key Data: US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending August 29 increased by 2.415 million barrels (expected a decrease of 2.031 million barrels, previous value was a decrease of 2.392 million barrels); EIA Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 1.59 million barrels (previous value was a decrease of 0.838 million barrels); EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 0.509 million barrels (previous value was an increase of 0.776 million barrels) [7]. - Main Viewpoints: Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical and fundamental factors, showing a wide - range oscillation. The recommended trading strategy is to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $60 - $65 per barrel [8]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Side Focus - Bullish Factors: Geopolitical disturbances and shale oil cost support [11]. - Bearish Factors: Fading expectation of the consumption peak season and OPEC+'s planned production increase [11]. 3.3 Macro Analysis - OPEC+ Potential Production Increase: OPEC+ may consider further increasing oil production at the Sunday meeting, which means starting to lift the second - layer production cut of about 1.65 million barrels per day (1.6% of global demand), one year earlier than planned. If production is increased in September, it will strengthen the expectation of supply surplus and may push oil prices to test previous lows. If the status quo is maintained, oil prices may recover, but the rebound space is limited [14]. - Fed's "Beige Book" and Related Data: The Fed's "Beige Book" shows price increases in all regions, with fewer mentions of inflation and a decrease in mentions of "slowdown". US July JOLTs job openings were 7.181 million, lower than expected, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has increased. US August ADP employment increased by 0.054 million, lower than expected. Fed official Christopher Waller released "dovish" remarks, suggesting starting a rate cut at the next meeting [15]. - Geopolitical Uncertainty: The Russia - Ukraine conflict has escalated, with Russia launching large - scale attacks on 14 regions in Ukraine. European countries plan to send troops to Ukraine, and Israel's military actions in the Middle East have also intensified, causing short - term disturbances to oil prices [16]. 3.4 Data Analysis - US Crude Oil Production: As of the week ending August 29, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 0.016 million barrels per day to 13.423 million barrels per day. Although production decreased last week, there are signs of a rebound, increasing supply pressure [19]. - US Oil Drilling Rigs: As of the week ending August 29, the total number of US oil drilling rigs was 412, an increase of 1 from the previous period. The decline in the number of drilling rigs has slowed down, and it is expected to remain at a low level as the current oil price is below the shale oil profit range [21]. - Demand: US crude oil consumption demand decreased by 0.195 million barrels per day to 19.82 million barrels per day as of the week ending August 29, mainly due to a decrease in refinery operating rates. Gasoline demand increased by 0.1447 million barrels per day to 10.0984 million barrels per day. US refinery operating rates decreased to 94.3% as of the week ending August 29. In China, as of September 5, the operating rate of major refineries was 81.59% (a 0.19 - percentage - point increase), and the operating rate of independent refineries was 60.02% (a 1.3 - percentage - point increase). The comprehensive refining profit of major refineries decreased by 133.8 yuan/ton to 661.86 yuan/ton, and that of independent refineries decreased by 41.72 yuan/ton to 188.11 yuan/ton [25][27][33]. - Inventory: US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 2.415 million barrels as of the week ending August 29, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 0.509 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 1.59 million barrels, while gasoline inventory decreased by 3.795 million barrels [43][47]. - Crack Spread: As of September 3, the US crude oil crack spread was $21.99 per barrel, showing a recovery and indicating a continued warming of US refined oil consumption [48]. 3.5 Future Market Judgment - This week, crude oil prices showed a wide - range oscillation. Geopolitical factors provided intermittent support, while OPEC+'s potential production increase suppressed prices. In the short term, the influencing factors are mixed, and it is difficult to form a continuous driving force. If OPEC+ implements a new round of production increase, oil prices may test the annual low. If the status quo is maintained, oil prices may recover, but the rebound space is limited. Attention should be paid to the $60 per barrel support level of WTI crude oil [51].