钢矿：底部震荡后上方仍有空间

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel and ore are expected to have upside potential after bottoming out and oscillating. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips and hold existing long positions with stop - loss set [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Steel and Ore Market Situation - This week, the production and apparent demand of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased, while both factory and social inventories increased. The supply of rebar and hot - rolled coils is expected to increase as steel mills in Tangshan and other places resume production. During the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, demand is expected to rise, and the capital availability rate of downstream construction has increased month - on - month. The cement delivery has been continuously improving, and the construction market is gradually transitioning to the peak season [5]. - This week, the daily output of hot metal was 228,840 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 112,900 tons. It is expected that the hot metal output will rebound later, supporting the demand for iron ore. The arrival and shipment of iron ore this period increased month - on - month. The resistance level of the main iron ore 2601 contract is 833, and the support level is 750 [5]. - This week, steel and ore oscillated at the bottom. During the week, the finished steel reached a new low, and the iron ore trend was still stronger than that of the finished steel [6]. Important News - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a slight month - on - month decrease of 1% from July and about a 35% year - on - year increase from 62,500 vehicles in the same period last year. This is the fifth consecutive monthly increase in the heavy - truck market since April this year [11]. - In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The market demand in the manufacturing industry has improved, with a slight month - on - month rebound [11]. - In August, the output of special - quality steel bars from 46 domestic enterprises was 4.3527 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 90,200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 263,800 tons. The expected output in September is 4.4783 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 125,600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 454,800 tons [11]. - In August, China's Logistics Industry Prosperity Index was 50.9%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [11]. - On September 2nd, Jiangsu Shagang Group lowered the scrap steel purchase price by 50 yuan/ton. After the adjustment, the truck - transported price for heavy - grade III scrap steel was 2,410 yuan/ton (including tax), and for furnace - grade I scrap steel was 2,490 yuan/ton (including tax). The cumulative decline in 2025 is 150 yuan/ton [11]. - On September 3rd, the average cost of 76 independent electric - arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,333 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The average profit was - 135 yuan/ton, and the profit during off - peak electricity hours was - 39 yuan/ton, a day - on - day decrease of 3 yuan/ton [11]. - On September 3rd, the total scrap steel inventory of 300 long - and short - process representative steel mills was 4.944 million tons, a decrease of 28,600 tons (0.58%) from the previous day. The daily consumption was 543,700 tons, a 0.28% decrease from the previous day, and the daily arrival was 515,100 tons, a 0.27% increase from the previous day [12]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Affected by production restrictions due to major events, the steel supply decreased this week but is expected to increase [13]. - Short - process steelmaking is in full - scale loss, while some blast furnaces still have profits. After the military parade, steel production will recover, and the daily hot metal output is likely to rise above 240,000 tons [15]. - The iron ore shipment volume continued to increase, and the arrival pressure is still expected to be high later. The port inventory has increased [23]. - From August 25th to August 31st, the total global iron ore shipment was 35.568 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.41 million tons. The total shipment from Australia and Brazil was 29.021 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.417 million tons. Australia's shipment was 18.946 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 502,000 tons, and the amount shipped from Australia to China was 15.298 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.874 million tons. Brazil's shipment was 10.075 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.919 million tons [25]. - From August 25th to August 31st, the total arrival at 47 ports in China was 26.45 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.827 million tons; the total arrival at 45 ports was 25.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.327 million tons; and the total arrival at six northern ports was 13.008 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.478 million tons [25].