冠通研究：上行乏力，尾盘收平

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Downstream domestic demand is insufficient, short - term export boost is limited, and urea is expected to run weakly. There is a technical rebound expected due to the support of autumn fertilizers and off - season storage. Caution is advised when short - selling [1] Summary by Related Content Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened high and closed flat, with upstream factory quotes weakly stable and new orders having poor sales. Indian NFL's September 2nd urea import tender price was significantly lower than the previous one, and the tender volume reached 5.6 million tons, a record high [1] - Recent urea daily production fluctuated within 180,000 - 190,000 tons, the lowest in recent months, but it was normal summer maintenance and did not change the loose supply pattern [1] - Affected by parades and major meetings, compound fertilizer factories' production decreased significantly this period, and are expected to gradually resume production this week. Northeast fertilizer preparation will start slowly, and factory inventories continued to accumulate, increasing by 0.92 tons (0.85% month - on - month) compared to last week [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Urea's main 2601 contract opened at 1,718 yuan/ton, closed flat at 1,713 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 236,446 lots (+2,095 lots). Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 891 lots and short positions increased by 3,287 lots [2] - Spot: Upstream factory quotes were weakly stable, and new orders had poor sales. Small - particle urea ex - factory prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei were mostly in the range of 1,650 - 1,680 yuan/ton [1][6] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: Based on the Henan region, the basis of the January contract was - 13 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [9] - Supply: On September 5, 2025, the national urea daily production was 183,400 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 77.49% [10] - Warehouse receipts: On September 5, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,299, an increase of 371 compared to the previous trading day, with 271 in Liaoning Fertilizer and 100 in Beifeng Seed Industry [4]