美指下跌，铜价震荡偏强

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report indicates that the US dollar index has declined due to the significant difference between the actual and expected increase in the US ADP employment in August and the expansion of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, which supports the non - ferrous metal market. Domestically, copper supply is expected to tighten as the smelter processing fees have decreased, the sulfuric acid price is at a high level, 5 smelters have maintenance plans in September, and the import of copper will impact the domestic market. Although it is currently the off - season for copper consumption, the increasing investment in domestic power grid facilities has driven copper demand, and there is an expectation of improved demand during the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". Therefore, it is expected that copper prices will be mainly oscillating and strengthening, and attention should be paid to the US non - farm payroll data [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The US ADP employment in August increased by 54,000, far from the market expectation of 65,000, and the July data was revised to 104,000. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have expanded, leading to a decline in the US dollar index. The smelter processing fees have decreased after a short - term rebound, and the sulfuric acid price is expected to be at a high level, which will reduce the profit compensation for smelters. Five smelters have maintenance plans in September, involving a crude smelting capacity of 1 million tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper production in September is expected to decline month - on - month. After the copper tariff is implemented, imported copper will flow back to the domestic market, squeezing the domestic market and affecting pricing. As of July 2025, the apparent copper consumption was 1.3745 million tons. Although it is the off - season, the increasing investment in domestic power grid facilities has driven copper demand. Currently, the downstream's willingness to buy is poor after the copper price rises, and the premium is under pressure, but there is an expectation of improved demand during the peak seasons [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower and rose during the day, closing at 80,140 yuan/ton at the end of the session. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 140 yuan/ton, and in South China was 40 yuan/ton. On September 4, 2025, the LME official price was 9,885 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 72 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of the latest data on August 29, the spot crude smelting fee (TC) was - 41.25 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.12 US cents/pound [7]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 18,900 tons, a decrease of 902 tons from the previous period. As of September 4, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 80,100 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 158,000 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 302,700 short tons, an increase of 18,344 short tons from the previous period [11].