美联储降息之箭已在弦，全球钱往哪里跑？

Group 1 - Developed markets are expected to outperform emerging markets following a dovish signal from the Federal Reserve, with historical data indicating greater upward elasticity in developed markets during the first 1-3 months after such signals [2][3][4] - The S&P 500 has historically shown an average increase of 1.3% in the month following dovish meetings, with a larger average increase of 5.5% over three months [2][5] - Large-cap stocks are generally favored over small-cap stocks in the aftermath of preventive rate cuts, although small-cap stocks may show significant improvement if economic indicators point to recovery [3][4] Group 2 - Growth sectors such as information technology and healthcare, along with cyclical sectors like financials, are expected to perform better due to their sensitivity to interest rate changes [3][4] - The U.S. dollar may not necessarily decline following rate cuts, as historical trends show a slight average increase in the dollar one month and three months after dovish meetings [3][4][5] - Short-term U.S. Treasury yields are expected to decline more significantly than long-term yields, which may be constrained by factors such as fiscal deficits and credit conditions [4][5] Group 3 - In the Chinese market, the impact of rate cuts is seen as a supplementary factor, with the primary influence being the economic fundamentals [4][5] - A-shares are anticipated to favor growth sectors over value sectors, particularly in interest-sensitive industries like pharmaceuticals and electronics, which tend to perform better in the six months following rate cuts [6][7] - Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the information technology sector, are expected to show superior performance both in the short and long term following rate cuts [6][7]