焦煤焦炭周度报告-20250905

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the double - coking futures market showed a pattern of weakening in the first four trading days and strengthening in the afternoon of Friday, recovering the weekly decline. With the end of the parade, the industry will see production recovery, and the market supply - demand structure will dominate the market. Entering the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October", attention should be paid to the degree of demand improvement. Currently, the coking coal market is in a weak equilibrium, and short - term fluctuations are the main trend [6][38]. - The increase in coke prices has eroded some of the steel mills' profits. The steel mills' acceptance of coke price increases has gradually slowed down, intensifying the game between steel and coke enterprises. The eighth round of price increases is difficult to implement, and the steel mills have initiated the first round of price cuts. In the short term, the coke futures market will fluctuate with coking coal [33][41]. Summary According to the Directory Report Summary (PART 01) - In the first four trading days of this week, the double - coking futures market weakened, and on Friday afternoon, it strengthened to recover the decline. The market bets that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is close to 100%. The domestic central bank conducted a 1 - trillion - yuan repurchase operation on September 5. The macro - sentiment warmed up on Friday, and commodities and the stock market rose in resonance. After the parade, the industry production will recover, and the supply - demand structure will dominate the market. The coking coal market is in a weak equilibrium, and short - term fluctuations are the main trend [6]. - As of September 2, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites improved, with a slightly narrower increase, and the improvement in housing construction projects was greater. Starting from September 4, Tangshan independent steel mills gradually resumed normal production. In early September, some coal mines in Shanxi had large - scale and regional shutdowns, mainly in Changzhi, Linfen, and Jinzhong, and most shutdowns were for 2 - 5 days, with some resuming production on the evening of September 3 [7]. - The supply of coking coal has shrunk, upstream inventory has decreased slightly, independent coking enterprises have continued to reduce coking coal inventory, steel mills mainly purchase raw materials based on rigid demand, the overall coke output has slightly declined, iron - water production has decreased, coke consumption has followed suit, and the profitability of coking enterprises has continued to improve [7]. Multi - Empty Focus (PART 02) - Bullish Factors: Reduced inventory pressure of coking coal, expected reduction in coking coal supply, expected increase in iron - water production after the parade, high certainty of Fed rate cuts, and loose domestic liquidity [10]. - Bearish Factors: Temporary decline in iron - water production leading to weakening coke demand, and low enthusiasm for downstream coking coal replenishment [10]. Data Analysis (PART 03) - Coking Coal Supply: The operating rates of 314 sample coal - washing plants and 523 sample mines decreased this week, and the daily output of clean coal decreased. The customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port slightly declined. With the end of the parade, some coal mines have resumed production [13]. - Coking Coal Upstream Inventory: As of September 5, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines and 314 sample coal - washing plants decreased, while the port coking coal inventory increased slightly. The upstream inventory has changed from an increase to a decrease [18]. - Independent Coking Enterprises' Coking Coal Inventory: As of September 5, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises decreased, and the inventory - available days decreased. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises increased slightly, and the enthusiasm for replenishing coking coal inventory remained weak [21]. - Steel Mills' Raw Material Inventory: As of September 5, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased, and the inventory - available days decreased. The coke inventory increased, and the available days increased. Steel mills mainly purchase raw materials based on rigid demand [25]. - Coke Output: As of September 5, the capacity utilization rates and daily output of all - sample independent coking enterprises and 247 steel enterprises decreased. The output of coking enterprises changed little, while the output of steel mills decreased significantly due to parade - related production restrictions [27]. - Iron - Water Production and Coke Consumption: As of September 5, China's coke consumption and the daily output of iron - water from 247 steel enterprises decreased. The profitability rate of steel enterprises declined. With the end of the parade, steel mills have resumed production, and iron - water production will recover [32]. - Coking Enterprises' Profitability: As of September 5, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 64 yuan/ton, and the profitability continued to improve. The seventh round of coke price increases was implemented, but the eighth round is difficult to implement, and steel mills have initiated the first round of price cuts [33]. - Double - Coking Forward - Month Basis Structure: The spot and futures prices of double - coking are oscillating at high levels [35]. 后市研判 (PART 04) - The market bets that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is close to 100%. The domestic central bank conducted a 1 - trillion - yuan repurchase operation on September 5. After the parade, the industry will see production recovery, and the supply - demand structure will dominate the market. The coking coal market is in a weak equilibrium, and short - term fluctuations are the main trend [38]. - The increase in coke prices has eroded some of the steel mills' profits, intensifying the game between steel and coke enterprises. The eighth round of price increases is difficult to implement, and the steel mills have initiated the first round of price cuts. In the short term, the coke futures market will fluctuate with coking coal [41].