Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - Corn: Bullish in the short - term, trading within a wide range in the medium - term, and following the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost in the long - term [4][6] - Pig: Weak in the short - term, with supply pressure expected to ease in the long - term if capacity reduction policies are implemented effectively [11][13] - Egg: Short - term stability with limited upside, supply pressure may re - emerge in the long - term depending on the extent of chicken culling [18][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Corn - Market Performance: Corn futures stopped falling and rebounded, with the main contract rising 1.51% to 2224 yuan/ton. Spot prices at ports and deep - processing enterprises were stable or slightly stronger [4][8] - Important Information: Port prices increased slightly, deep - processing enterprise purchase prices were stable or stronger, import corn auctions had certain transaction volumes, and corn futures warehouse receipts decreased. Wheat - corn price spread was inverted [4][5][8] - Market Logic: Short - term: Spot prices are stable and strong during the transition period, with support from new - season planting cost and pressure from wheat - corn spread. Medium - term: Focus on new - season drivers. Long - term: Follow import substitution and planting cost pricing logic and policy guidance [6] - Trading Strategy: Last week, it was suggested to consider long - position opportunities after the price tested the 2150 - 2160 support. This week, pay attention to the pressure levels of different contracts. If the pressure is broken, there may be further upside [7] Pig - Market Performance: Pig futures and spot prices both declined, with the main contract falling 1.7% to 13325 yuan/ton [11] - Important Information: The national average pig price decreased, the number of newborn piglets in the first half of the year was high, and the weight of weekly slaughtered pigs decreased [12] - Market Logic: Short - term: The resumption of slaughtering by farmers puts pressure on prices. Medium - term: Supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year. Long - term: Pig production capacity will continue to be realized this year, but supply pressure may ease next year if capacity reduction policies are in place [13] - Trading Strategy: Near - month contracts are weak, and far - month contracts trade on the expected difference in capacity reduction. Provide support and pressure levels for different contracts [14] Egg - Market Performance: Egg futures rose 0.85% to 3964 yuan/500kg, and spot prices were stable or slightly increased [18][19] - Important Information: Spot prices increased slightly, inventory levels were stable, the price of culled hens increased, and the estimated number of laying hens in September is expected to decline [19] - Market Logic: Short - and medium - term: School openings and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking support prices, but the upside is limited due to less - than - expected chicken culling and cold - storage egg inventory pressure. Long - term: Focus on the extent of chicken culling [20] - Trading Strategy: Maintain a short - selling strategy for the 2510 contract. Provide pressure levels for different contracts and suggest short - selling opportunities after certain conditions are met [21]
格林大华期货鸡蛋波段看多,上方空间谨慎乐观,生猪弱势延续,下方空间相对有限
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-09-05 10:50