固收周报：债市有望延续“牛陡”行情-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The bond market is expected to continue the "bullish steepening" trend. The current changes in PMI, as a core leading indicator of the economic fundamentals, may reflect "endogenous weak recovery + external pressure transmission". Coupled with the expectations of loose liquidity and policy, the bond market is likely to continue the "bullish steepening" trend. The downward space for interest - rate bond yields has opened up, and the long - end is more cost - effective; for credit bonds, it is necessary to strictly control the risks of low - rated bonds and focus on short - duration high - rated bonds; for convertible bonds, attention should be paid to varieties with strong policy catalysis and underlying stock elasticity [1][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Interest - rate Bonds - Liquidity Observation: From August 22 to August 29, 2025, the central bank conducted a total of 32,343.00 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 26,150.00 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 6,193.00 billion yuan. Most inter - bank funding prices increased, with DR001 down 8.27BP to 1.3295% and DR007 up 4.89BP to 1.5158%. Exchange - traded funding prices decreased, with overnight GC001 down 2.50BP to 1.2290% and GC007 down 490BP to 1.4840% [15]. - Primary Market Issuance: From August 25 to August 31, 2025, the primary market for interest - rate bonds issued 5,025.97 billion yuan, with a total bond repayment of 5,161.89 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing of - 135.92 billion yuan. There were no treasury bond issuances during the reporting period. Policy - based financial bonds raised 1,510.00 billion yuan, and local government bond issuances decreased compared to the previous period, raising 3,515.97 billion yuan [28]. - Secondary Market Trading: Treasury bond spot yields increased at the long - end. From August 22 to August 29, 2025, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, and 7 - year treasury bonds decreased by 0.09BP, 2.88BP, 0.02BP, and 2.05BP respectively to 1.3698%, 1.4776%, 1.6322%, and 1.7320%, while the 10 - year treasury bond yield increased by 5.61BP to 1.8379%. The 10Y - 1Y term spread widened from 41.11BP to 46.81BP. The spot yields of policy - bank bonds decreased. During the same period, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds decreased by 3.09BP, 0.39BP, 0.36BP, 0.21BP, and 0.25BP respectively to 1.5346%, 1.6916%, 1.7685%, 1.8979%, and 1.8756%. The 10Y - 1Y term spread widened from 31.26BP to 34.10BP [34]. 3.2 Credit Bonds - Primary Market Issuance: From August 25 to August 31, 2025, the primary market for credit bonds issued 784 new bonds (including inter - bank certificates of deposit), with a total issuance scale of 9,250.64 billion yuan, a decrease of 833.08 billion yuan compared to the previous period, and a net financing of - 2,078.26 billion yuan. Asset - backed securities had the largest proportion in terms of the number of issuances. By rating, AAA - rated bonds were issued at 2,147.94 billion yuan, accounting for 59.51%. In terms of maturity, most bonds had a maturity of less than 1 year. By industry, the financial industry had the largest number of issuances [2][45]. - Secondary Market Trading: The yields to maturity of credit bonds showed divergence. From August 22 to August 29, 2025, among urban investment bonds, the 5 - year AA - rated bonds had the largest upward movement of 5.94BP, while the 3 - year AA - rated bonds had the largest downward movement of 3.04BP. Among medium - and short - term notes, the 10 - year AA - rated bonds had the largest upward movement of 4.15BP, while the 1 - year AAA - rated bonds had the largest downward movement of 4.39BP [2][52]. - One - week Credit Default Event Review: From August 25 to August 31, 2025, the credit bonds of one enterprise defaulted [56]. 3.3 Observation of Major Asset Classes - Decline in European and American Stock Indices: From August 22 to August 29, 2025, the three major US stock indices declined. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.19% weekly, the S&P 500 index fell 0.10% weekly, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.19% weekly, closing at 45544.88, 6460.26, and 21455.55 points respectively. The three major European stock indices also declined. The German DAX index fell 1.89% weekly, the French CAC40 index fell 3.34% weekly, and the UK FTSE 100 index fell 1.44% weekly, closing at 23902.21, 7703.90, and 9187.34 points respectively [57][58]. - Decline in US Treasury Yields: From August 22 to August 29, 2025, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year US Treasury bonds decreased by 4.00BP, 6.00BP, 8.00BP, 6.00BP, and 3.00BP respectively to 3.83%, 3.58%, 3.68%, 3.92%, and 4.23%. The 10Y - 1Y term spread changed by 1.00BP to 40.00BP [61]. - Strengthening of the US Dollar Index and Weakening of Most Non - US Currencies: The US dollar index rose 0.13% weekly, and most non - US currencies weakened. From August 22 to August 29, 2025, the British pound against the US dollar fell 0.16% weekly to 1.3505; the euro against the US dollar fell 0.32% weekly to 1.1686; the US dollar against the Japanese yen rose 0.08% weekly to 147.0540; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan fell 0.41% weekly to 7.1030 [63]. - Increase in Crude Oil and Gold Prices: From August 22 to August 29, 2025, the COMEX gold futures price rose 3.02% weekly to 3,475.50 US dollars per ounce, and the London spot gold price rose 2.85% weekly to 3,429.15 US dollars per ounce. The Brent crude oil price rose 0.58% weekly to 68.12 US dollars per barrel, and the WTI crude oil price rose 0.55% weekly to 64.01 US dollars per barrel [67].