双焦：驱动尚不明显延续宽幅震荡运行

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - After major events, coal mines and steel mills are expected to resume normal production, with coking coal supply and demand rising next week. Coking coal spot prices have been declining, and the downstream is cautious. The coke market sentiment has weakened, and the first round of price cuts has partially taken effect. The focus is on the coal mine复产 intensity, and coal mine production is restricted, with supply - demand expected to be balanced and prices to fluctuate widely. It is recommended not to chase high prices in the short - term and consider buying on dips in the medium - term. For arbitrage and options, it is advisable to wait and see [4][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Trading Strategies - Single - side: Expected to fluctuate widely in the near term, not recommended to chase high, and maintain the idea of buying on dips in the medium term [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Wait and see [6] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - After major events, coal mines and steel mills are expected to resume normal production. Coking coal supply and demand will increase next week. The key lies in the coal mine复产 intensity. Although there is room for production increase, it is capped, and the production is unlikely to reach the high of the first half of this year or last year's level. Overall, supply - demand is expected to be balanced, and prices will fluctuate widely. Focus on coal mine production recovery and downstream steel demand [4] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Coking Coal - Spot Price: This week, coking coal prices mostly declined, downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average, and the auction failure rate increased. The market sentiment was weak. Shanxi coal warehouse receipts were 1140 yuan/ton, Mongolian 5 warehouse receipts were 1043 yuan/ton, and Australian coal (port spot) warehouse receipts were 1195 yuan/ton. Next week, prices are expected to rise and fall without an obvious trend [8] - Domestic Supply: This week, coking coal mine capacity utilization decreased significantly due to more temporary production cuts and shutdowns. It has gradually resumed recently. According to Steel Union data, the capacity utilization was 75.78% (- 8.26%). Affected coal mines are expected to resume production next week, and capacity utilization will rise to near the end - of - August level [8] - Imported Mongolian Coal: This week, the number of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port increased to a high level, with an average daily of 1158 vehicles, a week - on - week increase of 216 vehicles. Port transactions were active, but prices weakened. Next week, the number of customs - cleared vehicles is expected to remain high [8] - Demand: This week, coke production decreased slightly. The average daily coke production of independent coking enterprises was 64.32 (- 0.20) tons, that of steel mill coking was 45.72 (- 0.37) tons, and the total coke production was 110.04 (- 0.57) tons. Next week, coke production is expected to increase slightly [8] - Inventory: This week, the total coking coal inventory was 3599.5 (- 75.9) tons. Except for a slight increase in port and border inventory, inventories in other links decreased, especially in independent coking enterprises. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average, and coking coal spot prices declined [8] Coke - Spot Price: This week, the coke market sentiment weakened. Steel mills proposed the first - round price cut, which has partially taken effect. Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke (wet - quenched) warehouse receipts were 1527 yuan/ton, Shanxi Lvliang quasi - first - grade coke (wet - quenched) warehouse receipts were 1654 yuan/ton, and Shanxi Lvliang quasi - first - grade coke (dry - quenched) warehouse receipts were 1755 yuan/ton. Next week, the first - round price cut is expected to be fully implemented, and a second - round cut may be proposed [9] - Supply: This week, coke production decreased slightly. The average daily coke production of independent coking enterprises was 64.32 (- 0.20) tons, that of steel mill coking was 45.72 (- 0.37) tons, and the total coke production was 110.04 (- 0.57) tons. Next week, coke production is expected to increase slightly [9] - Demand: This week, hot metal production decreased significantly. The average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 228.84 (- 11.29) tons. After major events, steel mills have gradually resumed normal production. Next week, hot metal production is expected to approach the end - of - August level, and raw material demand will recover. In September, hot metal production is expected to remain high [9] - Inventory: This week, the total coke inventory was 951.0 (+ 6.9) tons. Due to less impact on coking enterprises than steel mills, coke inventory increased slightly. Coking enterprise inventory was 66.5 (+ 1.2) tons, steel mill coke inventory was 623.7 (+ 13.6) tons, and port inventory was 260.8 (- 7.9) tons [9] - Profit: According to Steel Union data, the national average profit per ton of coke was 64 yuan/ton; the average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke was 84 yuan/ton, that of Shandong quasi - first - grade coke was 124 yuan/ton, that of Inner Mongolia second - grade coke was - 15 yuan/ton, and that of Hebei quasi - first - grade coke was 85 yuan/ton [9]