Report Title - Syrup Premix Restrictions May Be Relaxed, Zhengzhou Sugar Prices Weaken [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Internationally, as Brazil reaches its supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to enter an accumulation phase. The ISO predicts a significantly smaller supply gap of 231,000 tons in the 2025/26 sugar season compared to 4.88 million tons in the current season. With high expectations for increased global sugar production, the US sugar price has fallen to a relatively low level, and further downward space is limited, but the breakthrough of key support levels should be monitored. [3] - Domestically, domestic sugar inventories are low, but a large amount of imported sugar has recently entered the market, becoming the mainstream supply. There are rumors of relaxing some restrictions under Company 1702, which may put slight pressure on sugar prices. Given the current low sugar prices, attention should be paid to key support levels. If the rumor is confirmed, the market may react. [3] - In terms of trading strategies, for the unilateral approach, considering the recent decline in foreign sugar prices, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak, and short positions can be considered at high points within the range. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see. For options, a strategy of selling call options can be considered. [4] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short positions can be considered at high points within the range due to the expected weakness of Zhengzhou sugar following the decline in foreign sugar prices. [4] - Arbitrage: Wait and see. [4] - Options: Consider selling call options. [4] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes in the 2025/26 Sugar Season - Supply - demand balance: The ISO predicts a supply gap of 231,000 tons in the 2025/26 sugar season, a significant reduction from 4.879 million tons in the 2024/25 season. Global sugar production is expected to reach 180.593 million tons, an increase of 5.419 million tons from the previous season, mainly due to production growth in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. Global consumption is expected to reach 180.824 million tons, an increase of 771,000 tons. The global sugar trade volume is expected to remain stable, with exports of 63.89 million tons and import demand of 63.768 million tons. The ending inventory/consumption ratio is expected to drop to 50.95%, about 10% lower than six seasons ago. [6] - Brazil's Sugar Production Situation - Bi - weekly sugar production in the central - southern region: In the first half of August, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 47.63 million tons, an 8.17% year - on - year increase; the ATR of sugar - cane was 144.83 kg/ton, a decrease of 6.34 kg/ton; the sugar - making ratio was 55%, a 5.85% increase; ethanol production was 2.193 billion liters, a 5.21% year - on - year decrease; sugar production was 3.615 million tons, a 15.96% year - on - year increase. [10] - Accumulated sugar production in the central - southern region: As of the first half of August in the 2025/26 season, the accumulated sugar - cane crushing volume was 353.881 million tons, a 6.62% year - on - year decrease; the ATR of sugar - cane was 129.26 kg/ton, a decrease of 6.04 kg/ton; the accumulated sugar - making ratio was 52.51%, a 3.37% increase; ethanol production was 16.071 billion liters, an 11.12% year - on - year decrease; sugar production was 22.886 million tons, a 4.67% year - on - year decrease, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow from 7.76% to 4.67%. [14] - Sugar inventory: Brazil's sugar inventory remains at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. [15] - Sugar Production in Other Countries - Thailand: In the 2024/25 season, sugar production was about 10.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons. In the first six months of 2025, exports were 3.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 820,000 tons. The 2025/26 season is expected to see a slight increase in production. [16] - India: In the 2024/25 season, sugar production was about 26.1 million tons, a 17.6% year - on - year decrease. The ISMA predicts that in the 2025/26 season, total sugar production will reach 34.9 million tons. After meeting domestic consumption of 28.4 million tons, there will be a surplus of about 12 million tons (including 5.5 million tons of carry - over inventory). Even if 5 million tons of sugar is used for ethanol production, the net sugar production will still reach 29.9 million tons, with about 7 million tons carried over as ending inventory. About 2 million tons of sugar may be exported in this season. [21] - Domestic Sugar Market Situation - Production: In the 2024/25 season, the sales - to - production ratio was relatively high, and inventories remained at a low level compared to the same period. In the 2025/26 season, domestic sugar production is in an increasing cycle, and it is expected to recover and reach about 11 million tons (subject to weather conditions). [24] - Import: High import profits have led to strong import expectations. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 318,200 tons. From January to July 2025, China imported 1.7778 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 53,900 tons or 3.12%. As of July in the 2024/25 season, China imported 3.2395 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 344,300 tons or 9.61%. In July 2025, China imported 159,700 tons of syrup and sugar premix, a year - on - year decrease of 68,600 tons. From January to July 2025, the total import of syrup and sugar premix was 618,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 561,600 tons. As of July in the 2024/25 season, the total import was 1.258 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 338,100 tons. [39] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Not provided in a summarized form; mainly includes various data charts such as Brazil's central - southern region's sugar production, inventory, and domestic sugar import data. [41][47][56]
糖浆预拌粉限制或放松，郑糖价格走弱
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-09-05 11:50