反内卷传闻带动反弹，高供应仍有压制

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The high supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese suppresses prices, but there is support from the cost side [4]. - The "anti - involution" rumor led to a rebound in ferrous alloy prices, but the rumor is unconfirmed, and the high - supply problem remains, so the upside potential of the rebound should not be over - estimated. If the price exceeds the cost line by more than 200, attention should be paid to the pressure [4]. - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased significantly due to the military parade and is expected to rebound next week, which will boost raw material demand. However, if the demand recovery in September is slow, steel mills may cut production to reduce inventory, leading to downward pressure on raw material demand [4]. - The cost of ferromanganese is supported by stable electricity prices in major production areas, stable port inventory of manganese ore (significantly lower than last year), firm spot prices at ports, and a slightly stronger quotation from overseas mines in October [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - Supply: This week, the output of ferrosilicon increased slightly, while that of ferromanganese decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to whether the output will continue to decline [4]. - Demand: The molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased significantly due to the military parade and is expected to rebound next week, which will boost raw material demand. However, the continuous increase in steel inventory may lead to steel mill production cuts and downward pressure on raw material demand if the demand recovery in September is slow [4]. - Cost: The electricity price in major production areas and the port inventory of manganese ore are stable. The port inventory of manganese ore is significantly lower than last year, and the spot price at ports is firm. Overseas mines' quotations for October are slightly stronger, providing support for ferromanganese [4]. - Market sentiment: The "anti - involution" rumor on Friday led to a significant rebound in ferrous alloy prices. However, the rumor is unconfirmed, and the high - supply problem remains, so the upside potential of the rebound should not be over - estimated [4]. 3.1.2 Strategy - Single - side trading: In the short term, follow the rebound. Due to the high - supply problem, do not be overly optimistic about the rebound height. Pay attention to the pressure levels of around 5800 for ferrosilicon and 6000 for ferromanganese [5]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5]. - Options: Sell straddle combinations on rallies [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis No specific content that can be summarized separately is provided. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Supply and Demand Data Tracking - Demand: The average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 228.84 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.29 tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel types was 2.01 tons (about 70% of the total demand), a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 tons. The weekly demand for ferromanganese in five major steel types (70%) was 12.37 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 tons [10]. - Supply: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 36.34%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2%. The weekly supply of ferrosilicon was 11.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.19 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent ferromanganese enterprises was 46.45%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.55%. The weekly supply of ferromanganese (99%) was 21.28 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 tons [11]. - Inventory: In the week of September 5th, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 6.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.36 tons. The inventory of 63 independent ferromanganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of the national production capacity) was 16.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.15 tons [12]. 3.3.2 Spot Price - Basis No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of price and basis trends are presented [16][17]. 3.3.3 Production Situation of Dual - Silicon Enterprises No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of weekly output and operating rate trends are presented [21][22]. 3.3.4 Steel Mill Production Situation No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of blast furnace capacity utilization, steel production, profitability, and inventory trends are presented [27][28]. 3.3.5 Ferromanganese Cost and Profit - On September 4, 2025, the production cost of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia was 5798 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 118 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, the production cost was 5880 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 380 yuan/ton; in Guangxi, the production cost was 6393 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 693 yuan/ton; in Guizhou, the production cost was 6133 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 483 yuan/ton. The production cost in the north was 5824 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 206 yuan/ton; in the south, the production cost was 6247 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 575 yuan/ton [30]. 3.3.6 Ferrosilicon Cost and Profit - On September 4, 2025, the production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5535 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 315 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, the production cost was 5588 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 388 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi, the production cost was 5600 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 400 yuan/ton; in Qinghai, the production cost was 5457 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 257 yuan/ton; in Gansu, the production cost was 5609 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 409 yuan/ton [40]. 3.3.7 Cost of Carbon Elements and Electricity Price No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of price trends are presented [47][48]. 3.3.8 Bidding Prices of Dual - Silicon by Representative Steel Mills in Hebei No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of price trends are presented [52][53]. 3.3.9 Monthly Output of Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of output and cumulative output trends are presented [58][59]. 3.3.10 Import and Export of Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of import and export volume trends are presented [65][66]. 3.3.11 Demand for Magnesium Metal No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of price and output trends are presented [68][69]. 3.3.12 Silicon - Iron Inventory of Alloy Plants and Steel Mills No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of inventory and available - days trends are presented [71][72]. 3.3.13 Manganese Ore Inventory of Alloy Plants, Steel Mills, and Ports No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of inventory and available - days trends are presented [73][74].