棉系周报：临近新花上市，棉价震荡为主-20250905

Report Title - Cotton Weekly Report: Cotton Prices to Fluctuate as New Cotton Harvest Approaches [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - As new cotton gradually enters the acquisition period in September, the market focus will shift to the opening price of new cotton. With high cotton production in Xinjiang and average purchasing enthusiasm from ginning mills, large - scale panic buying is not expected. Some market expectations put the acquisition price around 6 - 6.3 yuan/kg. As new cotton is widely listed, there will be certain selling hedging pressure on the futures market. Although the downstream demand has slightly improved as the peak season approaches in September, the improvement is limited, so the peak - season performance this year is not expected to be outstanding, and the boost to the futures market is also limited. The US cotton is expected to fluctuate, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker [26][42] Summary by Section Part 1: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - US Cotton Market: With no significant changes in the macro - environment and a high good - quality rate in the current fundamentals, the US cotton is expected to show a fluctuating trend [8] - US Cotton Growth: As of August 31, the boll - setting rate of cotton in 15 major cotton - growing states in the US was 90%, 4 percentage points slower than last year and 3 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The lint - opening rate was 28%, 7 percentage points slower than last year and 2 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The good - quality rate was 51%, 7 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five - year average. The growth progress was slower year - on - year but stable, and the good - quality rate, though declining month - on - month, was still higher than the recent average. The weather in the main producing areas was favorable with a low drought index [8] - US Cotton Sales: In the week ending August 21, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 40,700 tons, a 70% week - on - week increase; 2026/27 US upland cotton had a weekly signing volume of 0 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 25,600 tons, a 9% week - on - week decrease [8] - CFTC Positions: As of August 29, the number of unsold contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2512 contract decreased by 872 to 21,792, a decrease of 20,000 tons week - on - week. The total number of unsold contracts of sellers in the 25/26 season decreased by 495 to 45,490, equivalent to 1.03 million tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons week - on - week [8] - Brazil: As of the week ending August 30, the total cotton harvesting progress in Brazil (98%) was 72.8%, a 12.5 - percentage - point week - on - week increase, but 14.8% slower than last year. The harvesting progress in the two major producing states, Mato Grosso and Bahia, was slow. The future weather in Mato Grosso is expected to be sunny, which may accelerate the harvesting progress [8] - India: As of August 30, 2025, the cotton planting area in India for the 2025/26 season was 10.847 million hectares, 327,000 hectares lower than the same period last year, a 2.9% year - on - year decrease [8] - Global Situation: According to the latest USDA global cotton production and sales forecast in August, the global cotton production in August was 25.39 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 391,000 tons. The production in the US decreased significantly by 302,000 tons to 2.87 million tons, while China's production increased by 108,000 tons to 6.858 million tons. The total consumption decreased by 30,000 tons to 25.68 million tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 742,000 tons to 16.09 million tons [8] Domestic Market Logic Analysis - Supply Side: As of mid - August, the national commercial cotton inventory in China was 1.8202 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 36,960 tons, at a low level in the same period over the years. As of August 29, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 1.547 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 165,600 tons (a 9.67% decrease) [26] - Demand Side: Currently in the off - season of market consumption, as of mid - August, the industrial cotton inventory of cotton textile enterprises in China was 924,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25,800 tons. The yarn inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 27.23 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 35.14 days. As of August 21, the operating load of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 65.8%, a 0.46% week - on - week increase [26] Option Strategy - Volatility Trend Judgment: The historical volatility (HV) on the previous day was 10.4388, with a slight decrease compared to the previous day [40] - Option Strategy Recommendation: The previous day's position PCR of the main contract was 0.7377, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 0.6855. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased today. It is recommended to wait and see [40] Futures Trading Strategy - Unilateral Trading: It is expected that the US cotton will mostly fluctuate in the future, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker [44] - Arbitrage Trading: It is recommended to wait and see [44] Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking - Internal - External Price Difference: The report shows the historical trends of the internal - external cotton price difference and the price difference between September and January contracts [47][48] - Mid - end Situation: It presents the operating loads of pure - cotton yarn mills and full - cotton grey fabric mills, as well as the yarn and grey fabric inventory days [51] - Cotton Inventory: It shows the historical data of national commercial cotton inventory, textile enterprises' industrial cotton inventory, and state - reserve cotton inventory [53] - Futures - Spot Basis: It shows the basis differences of cotton in different months and the basis of US cotton, as well as the basis difference between the C32S cotton yarn spot and the active Zhengzhou cotton yarn contract [56]