铜产业链周度报告-20250905

1. Report Summary - The weak employment data released by the US strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this month, and the US dollar index weakened. The current macro - sentiment still follows the change of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the performance of this week's US non - farm payrolls data is the focus [5][11]. - The domestic manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing sentiment improved [5][13]. - The tightness in the copper mine end persists. The spot processing fee of domestic copper concentrates has declined continuously, and there is a large difference between holders and smelters on the processing fee. The estimated output of domestic electrolytic copper in August is 1.1683 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 15.3%. Domestic smelters' willingness to cut production is still not strong, which in turn supports the copper concentrate quotation [5]. - Copper inventory changes are not significant. The inventory of domestic electrolytic copper has not increased significantly. The Fed's interest - rate cut provides upward space for copper prices. The tight copper mine situation and the improvement of the macro - situation jointly support copper prices. The trading strategy is that copper prices may oscillate stronger, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the 81,000 mark above [5]. 2. Bull - Bear Focus Bullish Factors - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is heating up [8]. - The spot processing fee continues to decline, and the tightness at the mine end still exists [8]. - The spot continues to maintain a premium [8]. Bearish Factors - Social inventory continues to accumulate [8]. - The output of electrolytic copper continues to remain at a high level [8]. 3. Data Analysis International Economic Data - The US 7 - month core PCE price index increased by 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations and the previous value. The August ISM manufacturing index rose slightly from 48 to 48.7, lower than the expected 49, and has been below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. The new order index expanded for the first time since the beginning of this year, but the output index fell back into the contraction range. The number of job openings in July dropped to a 10 - month low. The Fed's Beige Book showed that economic activity in most parts of the US has changed little recently, with price increases and little change in overall employment levels. Fed Governor Waller said that interest - rate cuts should start this month and could be cut multiple times in the next 3 - 6 months [11]. - The ADP employment data in August showed an increase of 54,000 people, lower than expected. The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending August 30 was 237,000, higher than expected. The cooling of the US labor market has strengthened the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, and the probability of a rate cut in September has risen to 97.4% [11]. Domestic Manufacturing Data - The domestic manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing sentiment. The PMI of large enterprises was 50.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month and above the critical point; the PMI of medium - sized enterprises was 48.9%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month and below the critical point; the PMI of small enterprises was 46.6%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and below the critical point [13]. Copper - Related Data - Copper Ore and Concentrate Imports: In July, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.56 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.96% and a year - on - year increase of 18.45%. The supplies from Chile and Peru both rebounded, with a month - on - month increase of over 10%. Chile's copper output in July was 445,214 tons, with a slight month - on - month increase of 5% and a limited year - on - year increase. However, in late July, a collapse accident occurred in a new mining area of the world's largest underground copper mine of Codelco, and Codelco lowered its 2025 copper production guidance in August [16]. - Copper Concentrate Processing Fee: As of the week of August 29, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 41.2 US dollars per dry ton, down 2.59 US dollars per dry ton from the previous week. The spot processing fee of domestic copper concentrates has declined continuously, and the tightness at the mine end will continue to trouble the copper market [20]. - Refined Copper Production and Imports: In July, China's refined copper production was 1.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14%. Affected by the shortage of cold material supply, some smelters started to cut production slightly. In August, the number of smelters cutting production due to the shortage of copper concentrates and cold materials increased compared with July. In July, China's refined copper imports were 336,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32% and a year - on - year increase of 12.05%. The import loss narrowed in July, and imports remained at a relatively high level within the year [25]. - Scrap Copper Imports: In July, China's scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.73% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.98%. The supplies from Asian countries such as Japan, Thailand, and South Korea increased significantly. The main driving factor for the increase in scrap copper imports was strong domestic demand [28]. - Copper Scrap - Refined Spread: As of September 4, the copper scrap - refined spread was around - 305 yuan per ton, which was not conducive to refined copper consumption [32]. - Copper Inventory: LME copper inventory rebounded last week to a three - month high of 158,575 tons. SHFE copper inventory decreased slightly in the week of August 29, with a weekly decrease of 2.39% to 79,748 tons. COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate to a new high since January 2004. On September 4, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 148,100 tons, an increase of 7,700 tons from the 1st [50]. - Copper Premium: On September 4, the premium of Shanghai Wumaohui 1 copper spot was around 135 yuan per ton, and the premium range narrowed. The LME 0 - 3 spot discount was around - 66.89 US dollars per ton, and the discount range narrowed [54]. 4. Future Outlook - Copper prices may oscillate stronger, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the 81,000 mark above [57].