Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report, but a short - term wait - and - see approach is recommended [12] Core Viewpoints - Overseas ore supply is improving, and ore prices may face pressure in the fourth quarter. The over - capacity pattern in the smelting segment is difficult to change in the short term. However, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut may drive the non - ferrous sector to perform strongly. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see for macro - sentiment resonance. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2850 - 3250 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's interest rate cut policy [12] Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment - As of September 5, the alumina index decreased by 6.27% to 3005 yuan/ton compared to July 31. In late August, the bullish sentiment in commodities ebbed, and the supply - surplus structure drove the alumina futures price down [11] - Alumina production remained at a high level, with continuous inventory accumulation and looser warehouse receipts, causing the spot price to decline. As of September 5, 2025, the spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased significantly compared to the end of July [11] - As of September 5, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 275,000 tons to 4.357 million tons. The futures warehouse receipts and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse also increased. As the spot market loosened, the warehouse receipt registration volume gradually recovered [11] 2. Period - Spot End - Futures price: As of September 5, the alumina index decreased by 6.27% to 3005 yuan/ton compared to July 31. The supply - surplus structure led to a downward trend [21] - Basis: Pessimistic sentiment drove the futures price down, and the basis continued to rise. As of September 5, the Shandong spot price was at a premium of 74 yuan/ton over the main alumina contract price [21] - Calendar spread: The spread between the first - and third - month contracts remained stable, recording - 12 yuan/ton as of September 5 [21] 3. Raw Material End - Bauxite price: Domestic bauxite prices remained flat this month. As of September 5, the CIF price of Guinea bauxite increased by 0.5 dollars/ton to 74.5 dollars/ton, while that of Australia remained at 69 dollars/ton. Short - term support for ore prices exists due to reduced arrivals [25] - Bauxite production: In August 2025, China's bauxite production was 5.03 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.38%. The cumulative production in the first seven months was 40.86 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4% [27] - Bauxite import: In July 2025, bauxite imports were 20.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.75% and a month - on - month increase of 10.75%. The cumulative imports in the first seven months were 123.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.69% [29] - Guinea bauxite import: In July 2025, China imported 1594 tons of Guinea bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 51.98% and a month - on - month increase of 19.64%. The cumulative imports in the first seven months were 95.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.14% [32] - Bauxite inventory: As of August 29, 2025, the global bauxite floating inventory was 1.192 million tons, and China's port inventory was 2.865 million tons. In August, China's bauxite inventory decreased by 160,000 tons to 5.33 million tons, with Shanxi and Henan seeing inventory decreases [34][36] 4. Supply End - Alumina production: In July 2025, alumina production was 7.224 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% and a month - on - month increase of 5.43%. The cumulative production in the first seven months was 51.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.99% [39] - Operating capacity: In July 2025, the operating capacity of alumina was 93.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.94% and a month - on - month increase of 4.22%. The smelting profit recovered, and new capacity was gradually put into operation [42] - Newly - added capacity: In 2025, the total planned newly - added capacity was 13.3 million tons. Some projects in the first half of the year were successfully put into operation, and the Guangxi Guangtou project is expected to be put into operation in the third quarter. The Dongfang Hope project may be postponed to January 2026 [44][45] - Production profit: Alumina spot prices declined, squeezing producers' profits. On September 5, Guangxi's production profit was 510 yuan/ton, and Shandong's profits using Australian and Guinea ores were 242 yuan/ton and 290 yuan/ton respectively. Shanxi and Henan using Guinea ore could achieve profits of 22 yuan/ton and 133 yuan/ton [47] 5. Import and Export - In July 2025, alumina had a net export of 103,500 tons. The import volume increased from 1.013 million tons to 1.259 million tons, and the export volume increased from 1.71 million tons to 2.294 million tons. The cumulative net export in the first seven months was 1.1786 million tons [12][50] - As of September 5, the Australian FOB price decreased by 21 dollars/ton to 356 dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 10 yuan/ton, with the import window approaching [53] 6. Demand End - Electrolytic aluminum production: In July 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.778 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49% and a month - on - month increase of 3.44%. The cumulative production in the first seven months was 25.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% [57] - Operating capacity and utilization rate: In July 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.19 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month. The operating rate increased by 0.55% to 97.24% [60] 7. Inventory - As of September 5, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 275,000 tons to 4.357 million tons, with different changes in various types of inventory [65] - As of September 5, 2025, the alumina futures warehouse receipts increased by 99,600 tons to 106,300 tons, and the SHFE delivery warehouse inventory increased by 72,000 tons to 119,200 tons. As the spot market loosened, the warehouse receipt registration volume gradually recovered [67]
累库趋势持续，期价震荡下行
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-09-05 12:28