生猪：弱现实拖累盘面，关注政策变量

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Since late July, the live hog futures market has shifted from a "strong expectation - weak reality" state to a "weak reality - weak expectation" state, with the futures price declining under the drag of weak spot prices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weak Reality Drags the Futures Price to Oscillate Lower In the past month, the live hog spot price has been oscillating lower. As of August 27, it dropped to the lowest level of the year at 13.6 yuan/kg. The live hog 2511 contract was dragged by the spot, and the previous premium on the futures side was squeezed [3]. 3.2 The Second Half of the Year Remains in the Period of Realizing Previous Production Capacity, with Ample Supply Yongyi sample data shows that the inventory of breeding sows increased by 0.07% month - on - month in August, with the growth rate slowing down compared to the previous month. Shanghai Steel Union data shows that the inventory of sample breeding sows decreased by 0.01% month - on - month in August. Overall, the supply of live hogs is expected to gradually increase in the second half of this year, as the inventory of breeding sows from November last year to February this year and the number of new - born piglets from March to June this year both indicate an increase in the theoretical slaughter volume of live hogs [6]. 3.3 The Enthusiasm for Secondary Fattening is Suppressed In the first half of the year, the secondary fattening group was in the replenishment stage, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens increased. Since July, due to the decline in the live hog spot price and the new low in August, the secondary fattening group has suffered losses. The current utilization rate of secondary fattening pens is still between 40% - 60%, which is expected to affect the later replenishment enthusiasm [11]. 3.4 Continue to Pay Attention to Policy Variables in the Medium and Long Term As of the end of July 2025, the officially announced inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, 3.6% higher than the normal inventory of 39 million heads proposed in 2024. The pig - grain ratio in large and medium - sized cities has fallen below 6:1 for the second consecutive week, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to possible state reserve purchases [15].