有色金属日报-20250905

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Alumina: No clear rating indication [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: No clear rating indication [1] - Zinc: ★★☆, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is fermenting [1] - Lead and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Lithium Carbonate: No clear rating indication [1] - Industrial Silicon: No clear rating indication [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The market is highly concerned about non - farm payroll data, which will affect the market's expectations for the interest rate rhythm after the September interest rate cut [2] - The downstream demand and inventory levels of various metals show different trends, affecting their prices, and the market sentiment is also influenced by factors such as "anti - involution" and policy news [2][3][11] Summary by Metal Copper - On Friday, Shanghai copper regained the 80,000 - yuan mark. Today, the spot copper price dropped to 80,050 yuan, and the Shanghai copper premium was slowly adjusted to 165 yuan. Short - term long positions held this week [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum oscillated today, with the spot discount in various regions narrowing slightly. The downstream start - up rate increased seasonally, and the inventory is likely to remain low this year, but the inflection point of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is not clear. Shanghai aluminum will maintain short - term oscillation, with resistance at the 21,000 - yuan area. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum, and the Baotai spot price remains at 20,300 yuan. Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, with increasing industry inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts. The supply surplus is emerging, and the spot prices in various regions are accelerating to decline [3] Zinc - LME zinc inventory decreased to 54,800 tons, with a 0 - 3 month premium of $16.21 per ton. The overseas zinc spot supply is tight, and the loss of zinc ingot exports has narrowed. The short - sellers reduced their positions at low levels, and the price rebounded at the key 22,000 - yuan level. The short - selling of the profit margin on the trading floor is still the general direction [4] Lead - The cost and consumption are in a game, and the market contradiction is insufficient. The direction is unclear, and the trading volume is light. Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel weakened, and the market trading volume increased. The impact of the political turmoil in Indonesia is gradually fading. The inventory of pure nickel, ferronickel, and stainless steel all decreased. Shanghai nickel will oscillate at a low level in the short term [7] Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin closed up at 271,000 yuan, and the spot tin price was 271,700 yuan. The short - term long positions should be held based on 271,000 yuan [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rebounded sharply, and the market trading volume was light. After the price dropped rapidly, downstream buyers took the opportunity to purchase, and traders increased their inventory. Wait for the price to fall before going long [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures rose sharply, driven by the "anti - involution" performance of polysilicon. The supply is expected to increase by 5% in September, while the demand is expected to decrease. The short - term bullish sentiment may continue to ferment [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures broke through the upper limit of the 55,000 - yuan/ton range. The spot price of polysilicon N - type re - feeding material increased by 5,000 yuan/ton. The short - term sentiment may continue to ferment, and attention should be paid to position control [11]