螺矿产业链周度报告-20250905

Report Summary Market Focus - China held a grand ceremony to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War on September 3. China's economic sentiment generally continued to expand. The Fed's Beige Book reported little or no change in economic activity in most US regions, with rising prices and little or no net change in overall employment. On September 4, US President Trump signed an executive order to implement the US-Japan trade agreement, imposing a 15% benchmark tariff on almost all Japanese imports and providing separate industry-specific treatments for automobiles, auto parts, and aerospace products [5]. Key Data - China's official manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI in August were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5% respectively, up 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points month-on-month. Industries like general equipment and railway, ship, and aerospace equipment had production and operation activity expectation indices above 58%. The US job openings in July dropped from 7.36 million in June to 1.181 million, a 10 - month low, far below the expected 7.382 million. The US ADP employment in August increased by only 54,000, well below the expected 65,000. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August rose from 49.8 in July to 50.7, a three - year high, and the composite PMI reached a 12 - month high [5]. Main Views - Steel prices continued to decline this week due to weaker coking coal price support and continuous steel inventory accumulation. Despite the rising expectation of Fed rate cuts overseas, domestic steel was in the off - season with increasing inventory, leading to a weak performance of ferrous metals. Affected by previous production restrictions, steel mill output and demand decreased, with accelerated inventory accumulation of rebar and increased hot - rolled coil inventory. After the steel mills resumed production on September 4, supply - demand pressure might intensify. However, cost support from the improved supply - demand structure of the cost side would limit the decline. With the release of the growth - stabilizing plan for the electronic information manufacturing industry on Friday, market expectations improved. Steel prices were expected to follow coking coal, with short - term fluctuations to find bottom support and wait for signals of improved peak - season demand. Iron ore was relatively strong in ferrous metals supported by the expectation of steel mill复产. Although iron ore prices dropped at the beginning of the week due to the decline in coking coal prices, the expectation of steel mill复产 and inventory replenishment was strong. Despite a significant drop in hot metal production this period, steel mills were expected to be motivated to produce with high profits. However, with weakening downstream steel demand, increasing inventory, and rising iron ore shipments, continuous upward movement of iron ore prices was under pressure, and it was expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [5]. Bull - Bear Focus Bull - Bear Factors for Rebar - Bull factors: improved manufacturing sentiment in August, rising expectation of Fed rate cuts, and the introduction of growth - stabilizing plans for ten industries. Bear factors: expected increase in production after steel mill复产, a significant drop in steel demand, and accelerated inventory accumulation of rebar and increased hot - rolled coil inventory [8]. Bull - Bear Factors for Iron Ore - Bull factors: improved manufacturing sentiment in August, rising expectation of Fed rate cuts, the introduction of growth - stabilizing plans for ten industries, and the expectation of inventory replenishment driven by steel mill复产. Bear factors: a significant drop in hot metal production, seasonal decline in downstream steel demand, and increasing iron ore shipments [11]. Data Analysis Rebar - Spot prices continued to decline, and the basis weakened. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was at a relatively high level [24][40]. Iron Ore - Spot prices were firm, and the basis converged to near par. Iron ore shipments globally and from Australia and Brazil, as well as arrivals at 45 ports, showed certain trends. Hot metal production of 247 steel enterprises decreased, and iron ore import inventory and consumption also had corresponding changes [43][46][52]. Market Outlook - Steel prices were expected to follow coking coal, with short - term fluctuations to find bottom support and wait for signals of improved peak - season demand. Iron ore was expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term due to upward pressure from weakening downstream demand, increasing inventory, and rising shipments [59][61].